Werder Bremen
vs
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Werder Bremen 2–1 FC Augsburg
The model makes it 37% Werder Bremen, 28% draw, 35% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.56, FC Augsburg 1.45.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Werder Bremen wins, grey are draws, red are FC Augsburg wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Werder Bremen at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg30 August 2026
FC Augsburg
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
- W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
- 2 May 2026Werder Bremen 1–3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 20 December 2025FC Augsburg 0–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 19 January 2025Werder Bremen 0–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 24 August 2024FC Augsburg 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 27 April 2024FC Augsburg 0–3 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 9 December 2023Werder Bremen 2–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
- N. Füllkrug2 goals
FC Augsburg
- M. Gregoritsch3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Werder Bremen carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.98 for FC Augsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.45 for FC Augsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Werder Bremen rate 0.92 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Augsburg rate 1.31 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Augsburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 1.45 for FC Augsburg. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/1.04 for FC Augsburg.