Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Werder Bremen, 28% draw, 33% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Werder Bremen at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Line-ups
- 1K. HeinG
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 13ArthurM
- 15L. ReisM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 20Chuky San JoséF
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 18E. DinkçiF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
- 26C. IttenF
- 29Salim Amani MusahF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 4N. StarkD
- 8M. WeiserD
- 3O. WójcikD
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 1F. DahmenG
- 40Noahkai Kai Daniel BanksD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 10M. KömürM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 20A. Claude-MauriceM
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 39U. OgunduF
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
Form going into Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
- 2 May 2026Werder Bremen 1–3 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 20 December 2025FC Augsburg 0–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 19 January 2025Werder Bremen 0–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
- 24 August 2024FC Augsburg 2–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 27 April 2024FC Augsburg 0–3 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug80
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch40
- R. Fellhauer30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 3–2. The model had made a win for Werder Bremen its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Robin Fellhauer 18' for FC Augsburg, Calvin Marc Brackelmann 58' for FC Augsburg, Marco Grüll 66' for Werder Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug 86' for Werder Bremen, Mitchell Weiser 90+3' for Werder Bremen.