Alverca vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 1-0 Rio Ave.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Alverca, 28% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Rio Ave
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 35RayanM
- 6D. GuiM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 91JhonatanG
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 24E. JemideD
- 18Z. KassaryM
- 17S. MerhegF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 20João ToméD
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 3S. GarciaD
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 5A. NtoiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 79M. PatricioM
- 30R. GalčíkM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 22K. ChamorroG
- 9Tamble MonteiroF
- 80S. ClemmensenF
- 54G. LiavasM
- 60CaikeD
- 27T. MedinaM
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 17M. VrousaiF
Form going into Alverca vs Rio Ave
Alverca
Primeira Liga
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga
- D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Rio Ave
- 4 April 2026Rio Ave 1–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 8 November 2025Alverca 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 23 November 2024Alverca 2–2 Rio AveTaça de Portugal
- 24 November 2019Rio Ave 1–0 AlvercaTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Alverca and Rio Ave
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
- D. Camara30
Rio Ave
GoalsAssists
- J. Blesa31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Alverca beat Rio Ave 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alverca at 49%. The goal: Dawda Camara Sankharé 3' for Alverca.
How the call on Alverca v Rio Ave has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Alverca's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Alverca win49%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Rio Ave win23%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.