Alverca
vs
Rio Ave
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave
The model makes it 49% Alverca, 28% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alverca 1.87, Rio Ave 0.92.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Alverca vs Rio Ave
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Alverca wins, grey are draws, red are Rio Ave wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alverca at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Alverca vs Rio Ave
Alverca
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
- D2-2Estrela15 August 2026
Rio Ave
- D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
- W2-0away to Estoril22 August 2026
- L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Rio Ave
- 4 April 2026Rio Ave 1–2 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 8 November 2025Alverca 1–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 23 November 2024Alverca 2–2 Rio AveTaça de Portugal
- 24 November 2019Rio Ave 1–0 AlvercaTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Alverca and Rio Ave
Alverca
- Vivaldo Semedo2 goals
Rio Ave
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alverca carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.59 for Rio Ave. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Alverca and 0.92 for Rio Ave. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alverca rate 0.90 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rio Ave rate 0.76 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alverca the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Alverca against 0.92 for Rio Ave. Alverca's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.28 for Rio Ave.