Hammarby FF
vs
BK Hacken
The model makes it 45% Hammarby FF, 22% draw, 33% BK Hacken — fair odds of 2.22, 4.55 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 2.01, BK Hacken 1.72.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hammarby FF
- D1-1away to IF Brommapojkarna26 July 2026
- W4-0Degerfors IF19 July 2026
- W2-0Kalmar FF12 July 2026
- W2-1away to IF Elfsborg5 July 2026
- L2-3away to BK Hacken31 May 2026
BK Hacken
- D1-1Kalmar FF1 August 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm27 July 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad19 July 2026
- L3-4away to Orgryte IS11 July 2026
- L2-4Djurgardens IF6 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 27 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken
- 24 June 2026BK Hacken 1–4 Hammarby FFFriendlies Clubs
- 31 May 2026BK Hacken 3–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 21 September 2025Hammarby FF 4–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 27 April 2025BK Hacken 1–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 26 September 2024Hammarby FF 2–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 21 April 2024BK Hacken 2–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers
Hammarby FF
- P. Abraham8 goals3 assists
- V. Lind6 goals4 assists
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hammarby FF carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.42 for BK Hacken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Hammarby FF L-W-W-W-D; BK Hacken L-L-W-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.72 for BK Hacken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hammarby FF rate 0.71 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BK Hacken rate 0.63 and 1.50.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 0.4% chance of the title and BK Hacken 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 1.72 for BK Hacken. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.5 for BK Hacken.