Malmo FF
vs
Degerfors IF
The model makes it 76% Malmo FF, 15% draw, 9% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.68, Degerfors IF 0.84.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Malmo FF
- W2-1away to IF Brommapojkarna2 August 2026
- L1-2IF Elfsborg26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Kalmar FF20 July 2026
- W4-0IFK Goteborg12 July 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF4 July 2026
Degerfors IF
- L0-2away to IFK Goteborg2 August 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF25 July 2026
- L0-4away to Hammarby FF19 July 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK12 July 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF4 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Malmo FF | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 23 |
| 15 | Degerfors IF | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF
- 4 July 2026Degerfors IF 0–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 31 August 2025Malmo FF 1–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 11 May 2025Degerfors IF 1–4 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 23 September 2023Degerfors IF 1–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 5 June 2023Malmo FF 5–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 5 March 2023Malmo FF 2–1 Degerfors IFSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers
Malmo FF
- E. Botheim10 goals3 assists
Degerfors IF
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Malmo FF carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.07 for Degerfors IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Malmo FF W-W-D-L-W; Degerfors IF L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.68 goals for Malmo FF and 0.84 for Degerfors IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Malmo FF rate 0.82 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Degerfors IF rate 0.34 and 1.73.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Malmo FF against 0.84 for Degerfors IF. Malmo FF's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.34/1.73 for Degerfors IF.