Estrela
vs
Portimonense
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Estrela 2–0 Portimonense
The model makes it 62% Estrela, 22% draw, 16% Portimonense — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Estrela 2.22, Portimonense 0.87.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Estrela are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Estrela's rating is built from 45 Primeira Liga matches and Portimonense's from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Estrela are 12th in Primeira Liga on 10 points from 11 games; Portimonense are 10th in Segunda Liga on 14 points from 10 games.
- Estrela have not won in their last 5 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Benfica.
- Portimonense have won 2 of their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Porto B.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Estrela 1–1 Portimonense.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Estrela68%
- Level after ninety minutes19%
- Portimonense13%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estrela vs Portimonense
Has the model earned this number?
Estrela at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estrela vs Portimonense
Estrela
Primeira Liga
- L2-3Benfica8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Moreirense31 October 2026
- L0-2Casa Pia24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- W1-0away to FC Porto B8 November 2026
- D0-0Torreense31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
What these results say
- Estrela did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Estrela and Portimonense in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Portimonense | Segunda Liga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 14 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Primeira Liga · Segunda Liga
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Portimonense
- 29 July 2026Estrela 1–1 PortimonenseFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2024Estrela 3–0 PortimonensePrimeira Liga
- 2 September 2023Portimonense 1–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 23 July 2023Portimonense 3–1 EstrelaTaça da Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Portimonense
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Portimonense
GoalsAssists
- Danio Djassi11
- Welinton Júnior10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estrela the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Estrela against 0.87 for Portimonense. Estrela's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.45 for Portimonense.
How the model reaches 62% for Estrela to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estrela to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Estrela's ratings add 11 points and Portimonense's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Estrela's ratings55%+11
- Portimonense's ratings62%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Estrela at home · Portimonense away
League matches only, this season — Estrela in the Primeira Liga, Portimonense in the Segunda Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Estrela 11 in the Primeira Liga, Portimonense 10 in the Segunda Liga.
Portimonense score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Estrela have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estrela
- at Vitória SC28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- vs GIL Vicente6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- at FC Porto13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 7%
- vs Maritimo20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 52%
- at Santa Clara27 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 22%
Portimonense
- at Feirense27 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Felgueiras 19326 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at AVS13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Farense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.