Round of 32 · 22 November 2026, 20:45 UTC

Torreense vs Benfica Taça de Portugal prediction

Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras

Our model says: Torreense 0–2 Benfica

The model makes it 10% Torreense, 18% draw, 72% Benfica — fair odds of 10.00, 5.56 and 1.39.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).

Expected goals: Torreense 0.77, Benfica 2.73.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Torreense's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Benfica's from 45 Primeira Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Torreense have won 1 of their last 5 Segunda Liga games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to União de Leiria.
  • Benfica are unbeaten in 4 Primeira Liga games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Estrela.

Chance to go through

Taça de Portugal Round of 32 — a single match: the winner goes through.

  • Torreense8%
  • Level after ninety minutes14%
  • Benfica78%

The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.

More Taça de Portugal predictions

All Taça de Portugal predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Torreense vs Benfica

51%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Torreense win Draw Benfica win
  1. 0–211%
  2. 0–310%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–38%
  6. 0–47%
  7. 1–17%

Scores read Torreense first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Benfica at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Torreense vs Benfica

Torreense

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3União de Leiria9 November 2026
  • W3-2Ararat-Armenia5 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Portimonense31 October 2026
  • W1-0Amarante26 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Ferencvarosi TC22 October 2026

Benfica

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Estrela8 November 2026
  • W3-1Lech Poznan5 November 2026
  • W1-0Alverca2 November 2026
  • W4-1GIL Vicente29 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Santa Clara26 October 2026

What these results say

  • Torreense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Benfica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

How the call on Torreense v Benfica has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 11% / 19% / 70% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 10% / 18% / 72%: the biggest move is Benfica's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Torreense win10%▼ −1
  2. Draw18%▼ −1
  3. Benfica win72%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Torreense Benfica
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.62
1.4 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.78
0.77 Model expected goals (this match) 2.73

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Torreense against 2.73 for Benfica. Torreense's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.78 for Benfica.

How the model reaches 72% for Benfica to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benfica to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Torreense's ratings add 20 points and Benfica's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 72%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Torreense's ratings49%+20
  4. Benfica's ratings72%+23

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

TorreenseBenfica
10Matches11
2W 4D 4LRecord9W 1D 1L
10 1.0 per gameGoals scored30 2.7 per game
13 1.3 per gameGoals conceded10 0.9 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets5 of 11
4 of 10Failed to score0 of 11
–Penalties scored3 of 3
19 1.9 per gameYellow cards24 2.2 per game
3Red cards2
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Torreense at home · Benfica away

5Played6
1W 2D 2LRecord5W 0D 1L
5–8Goals for – against20–6
2 of 5Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, this season — Torreense in the Segunda Liga, Benfica in the Primeira Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Torreense 10 in the Segunda Liga, Benfica 11 in the Primeira Liga.

Torreense scored 111213
Benfica conceded 102522

Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Benfica have let in 2 there.

Benfica scored 432963
Torreense conceded 122512

Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Torreense have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Torreense

  • vs Celtic26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
  • at Academica30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
  • vs Sporting CP B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
  • at Real Sociedad10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 10%
  • at Felgueiras 193214 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%

Benfica

  • at Plzen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
  • vs Famalicao30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 64%
  • at Nacional6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 66%
  • vs OFI10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 81%
  • vs SC Braga13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 56%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.