Guimaraes
vs
Arouca
The model makes it 42% Guimaraes, 25% draw, 33% Arouca — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guimaraes 1.63, Arouca 1.41.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Guimaraes vs Arouca
- 7 February 2026Arouca 3–2 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 30 August 2025Guimaraes 1–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 18 January 2025Guimaraes 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 12 August 2024Arouca 0–1 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 18 May 2024Arouca 1–3 GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
- 15 January 2024Guimaraes 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guimaraes carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.78 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Guimaraes and 1.41 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guimaraes rate 0.83 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.90 and 1.04.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guimaraes the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Guimaraes against 1.41 for Arouca. Guimaraes's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.04 for Arouca.