Karlsruher SC
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
The model makes it 49% Karlsruher SC, 21% draw, 30% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 2.22, Arminia Bielefeld 1.72.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 10 April 2026Karlsruher SC 4–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 8 November 2025Arminia Bielefeld 4–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 16 April 2023Karlsruher SC 4–2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 7 October 2022Arminia Bielefeld 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 21 June 2020Karlsruher SC 3–3 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 6 December 2019Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Karlsruher SC carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.94 for Arminia Bielefeld. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.22 goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.72 for Arminia Bielefeld. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karlsruher SC rate 1.11 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arminia Bielefeld rate 1.24 and 1.06.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karlsruher SC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Karlsruher SC against 1.72 for Arminia Bielefeld. Karlsruher SC's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/1.06 for Arminia Bielefeld.