Maritimo
vs
Casa Pia
The model makes it 19% Maritimo, 24% draw, 57% Casa Pia — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Maritimo 0.94, Casa Pia 1.78.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Casa Pia
- 19 March 2023Casa Pia 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 3 October 2022Maritimo 1–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 23 July 2022Casa Pia 0–0 MaritimoFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Maritimo carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.86 for Casa Pia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for Maritimo and 1.78 for Casa Pia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maritimo rate 0.57 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Casa Pia rate 0.87 and 0.87.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Casa Pia the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Maritimo against 1.78 for Casa Pia. Maritimo's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.87 for Casa Pia.