Maritimo vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Maritimo, 24% draw, 57% Casa Pia — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Casa Pia at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs Casa Pia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18Vladan DanilovićM
- 11Simo BouzaidiF
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 10Martín TejónF
- 27Samuel BambaF
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 90Maurice BoakyeF
- 22Gábor SzalaiD
- 25Yellu SantiagoM
- 77Pedro TeixeiraG
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 68Nelio BatistaM
- 16Francisco SilvaM
- 31André GomesG
- 18André GeraldesD
- 4João GoulartD
- 43David SousaD
- 5Abdu ContéD
- 24Sebastián PérezM
- 80Lawrence OforiM
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 13Oluwakorede OsundinaF
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 10RochinhaF
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 19Kevin PrietoF
- 20Alassana JattaF
- 16Selvi ClúaM
- 3Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraD
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 22Daniel AzevedoG
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 59Abdu DafeM
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Casa Pia
- 19 March 2023Casa Pia 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 3 October 2022Maritimo 1–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 23 July 2022Casa Pia 0–0 MaritimoFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Maritimo beat Casa Pia 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Casa Pia at 57% and given a win for Maritimo 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Raphael Guzzo 61' for Maritimo. On expected goals it finished 1.25–0.61.