Estrela
vs
Sporting CP
The model makes it 21% Estrela, 17% draw, 62% Sporting CP — fair odds of 4.76, 5.88 and 1.61. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Estrela 1.69, Sporting CP 2.90.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Sporting CP
- 11 April 2026Estrela 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 30 November 2025Sporting CP 4–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 29 March 2025Estrela 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2024Sporting CP 5–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 29 March 2024Estrela 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 5 November 2023Sporting CP 3–2 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
The two sides
Estrela carry a model rating of 6.65 against 7.06 for Sporting CP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Estrela and 2.90 for Sporting CP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estrela rate 0.97 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP rate 1.39 and 0.92.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 77% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (7%), 1-3 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Estrela against 2.9 for Sporting CP. Estrela's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.39/0.92 for Sporting CP.