Estrela vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estrela 2-2 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Estrela, 17% draw, 62% Sporting CP — fair odds of 4.76, 5.88 and 1.61.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estrela vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Leo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Luan PatrickD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78S. SerraM
- 39G. DoueM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 22D. GriloG
- 51D. PintoG
- 9S. van HooijdonkF
- 79A. ChernevD
- 28T. MoustierM
- 93B. SouzaM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 17J. EncadaD
- 8RobinhoM
- 1R. SilvaG
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 72E. QuaresmaD
- 25G. InacioD
- 50R. DiasD
- 5S. AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10G. CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 58F. GoncalvesM
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 12J. VirginiaG
- 41Diego CallaiG
- 97L. SuarezF
- 4S. AndersenM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 26O. DiomandeD
- 9R. NelF
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 73E. FelicissimoM
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Sporting CP
- 11 April 2026Estrela 0–1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 30 November 2025Sporting CP 4–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 29 March 2025Estrela 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2024Sporting CP 5–1 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 29 March 2024Estrela 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Estrela and Sporting CP
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Estrela and Sporting CP drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 62% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: R. Zalazar 46' for Sporting CP, F. Ioannidis 59' for Sporting CP, L. Antonetti 72' for Estrela, B. Souza 84' for Estrela. On expected goals it finished 1.01–2.63.