7 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

Estoril vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Estoril, 27% draw, 38% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Famalicao at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estoril4%Draw92%Famalicao4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
⚽G. Koutsiasassist: Gil Dias
Ricard Sánchez
53'
🔁A. Lacximicantout: F. Garcia
66'
🔁R. Sanchezout: P. Carvalho
66'
66'
🔁P. Santosout: T. Szucs
⚽Y. Begraouiassist: P. Carvalho
72'
76'
Rodrigo Pinheiro
77'
🔁Gil Diasout: O. Aranda
77'
🔁Sorrisoout: R. Beney
🔁Xekaout: Jandro
83'
83'
🔁G. Koutsiasout: U. Abubakar
🔁A. Tsounguiout: T. Brito
87'
90+3'
Romeo Beney

Match stats — Estoril vs Famalicao

50%Possession50%
14Shots6
3On target2
7Corners6
0.99xG1.43

Goals against chances

Estoril1 from 0.99 xGabout what the chances were worth
Famalicao1 from 1.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estoril 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. RoblesG
  • 2R. SanchezD
  • 4FerroD
  • 15I. SierraD
  • 3F. MedranoD
  • 8XekaM
  • 5A. TsounguiM
  • 99R. GuitaneM
  • 12J. CarvalhoM
  • 7A. LacximicantM
  • 14Y. BegraouiF
Substitutes
  • 16M. TurkG
  • 31D. DiasG
  • 18G. CostaD
  • 6JandroM
  • 90T. BritoM
  • 55T. ParenteD
  • 80L. GomesM
  • 98F. GarciaF
  • 22P. CarvalhoD
Coach: Vasco Matos
Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevicG
  • 17R. PinheiroD
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro BondoD
  • 6T. Van de LooiM
  • 14M. De AmorimM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 10P. SantosM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 19P. MoreiraM
  • 11O. ArandaF
  • 8M. PenaM
  • 91R. AlmeidaF
  • 2GarciaD
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 21T. Szucs
  • 30V. Serafimovic
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Estoril10028519-142
10Famalicao113441514+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estoril vs Famalicao

  • 26 April 2026Estoril 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 14 December 2025Famalicao 4–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 22 November 2025Estoril 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal
  • 12 April 2025Famalicao 3–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 1 December 2024Estoril 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga

The full Estoril vs Famalicao record →

Leading scorers: Estoril and Famalicao

Estoril

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Famalicao

GoalsAssists

  • G. Koutsias50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Estoril and Famalicao drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Famalicao at 38% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: G. Koutsias 32' for Famalicao, Y. Begraoui 72' for Estoril. On expected goals it finished 0.99–1.43.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.