Estoril
vs
Famalicao
The model makes it 35% Estoril, 27% draw, 38% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Estoril 1.36, Famalicao 1.43.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Famalicao
- 26 April 2026Estoril 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 14 December 2025Famalicao 4–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 22 November 2025Estoril 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal
- 12 April 2025Famalicao 3–0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 1 December 2024Estoril 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 28 April 2024Estoril 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
The two sides
Estoril carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.82 for Famalicao. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Estoril and 1.43 for Famalicao. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estoril rate 0.78 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Famalicao rate 0.85 and 0.92.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Famalicao the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Estoril against 1.43 for Famalicao. Estoril's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.92 for Famalicao.