Gremio
vs
Chapecoense
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 59% Gremio, 21% draw, 20% Chapecoense — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Gremio 2.12, Chapecoense 1.16.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gremio
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Mirassol17 July 2026
- L1-3Corinthians30 May 2026
- W3-2Santos23 May 2026
Chapecoense
- L1-2away to Coritiba8 August 2026
- D2-2away to Santos25 July 2026
- L0-4Flamengo23 July 2026
- L0-2away to Bahia17 July 2026
- L0-1away to Palmeiras31 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assists
Chapecoense
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gremio carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.5 for Chapecoense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gremio W-L-L-D-W; Chapecoense L-L-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for Gremio and 1.16 for Chapecoense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gremio rate 0.83 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chapecoense rate 0.67 and 1.35.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gremio the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Gremio against 1.16 for Chapecoense. Gremio's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.35 for Chapecoense.