Gremio vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Gremio, 27% draw, 30% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gremio at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Chapecoense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 7C. PavonD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 82WallaceD
- 23MarlonD
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 99J. EnamoradoM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 10F. KrovinovicM
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 18Joao PedroD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 4Walter KannemannD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 40JefinhoM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 65RiquelmeM
- 95Carlos ViniciusF
- 98AndersonG
- 5HeitorD
- 21KauanD
- 3Eduardo DomaD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 31Mauricio GarcezM
- 9TulioF
- 30Matheus AurelioG
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 12FernandoD
- 26EvertonD
- 70Rubens RicoldiM
- 80M. CarvalhoM
- 19David AntunesM
- 97EnioM
- 77D. BorreroM
Form going into Gremio vs Chapecoense
Gremio
- L0-1away to RB Bragantino23 August 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Mineiro16 August 2026
- W2-1Sao Paulo8 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo29 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense26 July 2026
Chapecoense
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Gremio conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gremio failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gremio vs Chapecoense
- 4 July 2026Gremio 1–2 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
- 16 March 2026Chapecoense 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 26 July 2022Chapecoense 0–0 GremioSerie B
- 15 April 2022Gremio 0–1 ChapecoenseSerie B
- 20 November 2021Chapecoense 1–3 GremioSerie A
- 9 August 2021Gremio 2–1 ChapecoenseSerie A
Leading scorers: Gremio and Chapecoense
Gremio
- Carlos Vinícius10 goals1 assist
Chapecoense
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.