Mirassol vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Mirassol 1-1 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Mirassol, 29% draw, 33% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mirassol at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34Joao VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 27DenilsonM
- 25Neto Moura
- 19Gustavo SilvaM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 12Victor LuisD
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 18EliasD
- 55G. CazonattiM
- 10Chico KimM
- 7ShaylonM
- 5JapaM
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GomezD
- 26MuriloD
- 18MauricioM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 56Arthur GabrielM
- 42J. LopezF
- 7Felipe AndersonF
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 12KhellvenD
- 66Andre LucasD
- 32E. MartinezM
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 48LarsonM
- 37Riquelme Fillipi
Form going into Mirassol vs Palmeiras
Mirassol
- D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
- L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
- L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026
- W2-1Remo29 July 2026
- D1-1away to Vasco da Gama25 July 2026
Palmeiras
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mirassol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Mirassol.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Palmeiras
- 15 March 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolSerie A
- 17 January 2026Palmeiras 1–0 MirassolPaulista - A1
- 9 November 2025Mirassol 2–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 16 July 2025Palmeiras 1–1 MirassolSerie A
- 23 February 2025Mirassol 2–3 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
- 24 February 2024Palmeiras 3–1 MirassolPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Palmeiras
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.