Corinthians vs Santos Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 0-1 Santos.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Corinthians, 29% draw, 29% Santos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Santos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 29AllanM
- 14RanieleM
- 37Kaio CesarM
- 8R. GarroM
- 61DieguinhoM
- 10M. DepayF
- 51KaueG
- 26F. AngileriD
- 20P. MilansD
- 46HugoD
- 4Joao PedroD
- 55I. MachadoD
- 23M. PereiraM
- 80Alex SantanaM
- 35Charles RigonM
- 77Gabriel BrazaoG
- 18Igor ViniciusD
- 4Lucas VerissimoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 48Gustavo HenriqueM
- 15Willian AraoM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 10NeymarM
- 22A. BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 1DiogenesG
- 38Rafael GonzagaD
- 26Joao AnaniasD
- 81S. PierriM
- 30MiguelitoM
- 16ThacianoM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 32B. RollheiserF
Form going into Corinthians vs Santos
Corinthians
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
Santos
- D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
- W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
What these results say
- Santos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 7 | Santos | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Santos
- 15 March 2026Santos 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 22 January 2026Santos 1–1 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
- 16 October 2025Santos 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 18 May 2025Corinthians 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 9 March 2025Corinthians 2–1 SantosPaulista - A1
- 13 February 2025Corinthians 2–1 SantosPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Santos
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 29 league goals as a side.
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa11 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.