Corinthians
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 76% Corinthians, 13% draw, 11% Santos — fair odds of 1.32, 7.69 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Corinthians 3.28, Santos 1.26.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Corinthians
- W2-0away to RB Bragantino9 August 2026
- D0-0Atletico Paranaense30 July 2026
- D1-1away to Bahia26 July 2026
- W3-0Remo23 July 2026
- W3-1away to Gremio30 May 2026
Santos
- L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Botafogo16 July 2026
- W3-1Vitoria30 May 2026
- L2-3away to Gremio23 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 32 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Corinthians
No league goals recorded yet.
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Corinthians carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.6 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Corinthians W-W-D-D-W; Santos L-W-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.28 goals for Corinthians and 1.26 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Corinthians rate 0.96 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 1.01 and 1.81.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Corinthians a 0.1% chance of the title and Santos 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corinthians the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.28 expected goals for Corinthians against 1.26 for Santos. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.81 for Santos.