Bahia
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 66% Bahia, 18% draw, 16% Internacional — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Bahia 2.59, Internacional 1.26.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bahia
- D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Fluminense30 July 2026
- D1-1Corinthians26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Mineiro21 July 2026
- W2-0Chapecoense17 July 2026
Internacional
- D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
- D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
- L1-3away to RB Bragantino31 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Bahia
- Luciano Juba7 goals1 assists
Internacional
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bahia carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.64 for Internacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Bahia W-D-D-D-D; Internacional L-L-L-D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.59 goals for Bahia and 1.26 for Internacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bahia rate 0.83 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Internacional rate 1.01 and 1.65.
That points to 74% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bahia a 0.1% chance of the title and Internacional 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Bahia against 1.26 for Internacional. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.65 for Internacional.