Bahia vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 3-2 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Bahia, 28% draw, 26% Internacional — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bahia vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ronaldo StradaG
- 31R. GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 21S. RamosD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5Nicolas AcevedoM
- 11RodrigoM
- 99C. OliveraF
- 9A. VelizF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 17G. HerreraG
- 4KanuD
- 3M. MorenoD
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 66Ze GuilhermeD
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 12Willian JoseF
- 7AdemirF
- 15Michel AraujoM
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 35B. AguirreD
- 4F. TorresD
- 3G. MaripanD
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 26A. BernabeiD
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 16RonaldoM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 28VitinhoF
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 12AnthoniG
- 18JuninhoD
- 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
- 46Pedro KauaD
- 17N. EliassonM
- 5R. VillagraM
- 30CalebeM
- 52G. ViniciusM
- 19A. SanabriaF
Form going into Bahia vs Internacional
Bahia
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
Internacional
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Internacional
- 15 March 2026Internacional 0–1 BahiaSerie A
- 8 November 2025Internacional 2–2 BahiaSerie A
- 22 October 2025Bahia 1–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 28 May 2025Internacional 2–1 BahiaCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 3 April 2025Bahia 1–1 InternacionalCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 27 July 2024Bahia 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Internacional
Bahia
- Luciano Juba9 goals1 assist
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.