Flamengo
vs
Botafogo
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 56% Flamengo, 23% draw, 21% Botafogo — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Flamengo 1.99, Botafogo 1.16.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Flamengo
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
- W4-0away to Chapecoense23 July 2026
- W3-0Coritiba30 May 2026
Botafogo
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
- D0-0Vitoria23 July 2026
- W2-1Santos16 July 2026
- L1-2away to Bahia30 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | +21 | 42 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 33 | +2 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Flamengo
- Pedro12 goals4 assists
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos7 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Flamengo carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.59 for Botafogo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Flamengo W-W-D-D-W; Botafogo L-W-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Flamengo and 1.16 for Botafogo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 0.73 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botafogo rate 0.84 and 1.44.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 33.8% chance of the title and Botafogo 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Flamengo against 1.16 for Botafogo. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 0.73/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.44 for Botafogo.