Flamengo vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Flamengo 3-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Flamengo, 28% draw, 29% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Flamengo vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. RossiG
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 3Leo OrtizD
- 4Leo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 21JorginhoM
- 7Luiz AraujoM
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 9PedroF
- 42A. da Silva VenturaG
- 49Dyogo AlvesG
- 13DaniloD
- 2G. VarelaD
- 61Joao SouzaD
- 77J. GoesD
- 52Evertton AraujoM
- 99LorranM
- 20Lucas PaquetaM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 34G. JustinoD
- 21MarcalD
- 2VitinhoM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 13Alex TellesM
- 88EdenilsonF
- 10A. MontoroF
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 17WarlesonG
- 62CleberG
- 33L. MonzonD
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 25AllanM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 7Junior SantosF
Form going into Flamengo vs Botafogo
Flamengo
- L1-2away to Cruzeiro22 August 2026
- W5-1away to Mirassol16 August 2026
- W2-0Vitoria9 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional29 July 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo26 July 2026
Botafogo
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cruzeiro26 July 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Flamengo.
- Botafogo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Botafogo
- 14 March 2026Botafogo 0–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 15 February 2026Botafogo 1–2 FlamengoCarioca - 1
- 15 October 2025Botafogo 0–3 FlamengoSerie A
- 18 May 2025Flamengo 0–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 13 February 2025Flamengo 1–0 BotafogoCarioca - 1
- 2 February 2025Botafogo 1–3 FlamengoSupercopa do Brasil
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Botafogo
Flamengo
- Pedro16 goals5 assists
- Samuel Lino9 goals7 assists
Botafogo
- Danilo Santos9 goals2 assists
- Arthur Cabral7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.