Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Derry City, 28% draw, 28% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derry City at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
- L3-5away to Bohemians21 August 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers7 August 2026
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Dundalk7 August 2026
- D0-0away to Drogheda United31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Derry City | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 38 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 29 | +17 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Derry City and Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
- M. Duffy10 goals5 assists
- J. Clarke6 goals3 assists
Shamrock Rovers
- G. Burke7 goals1 assists
- M. Noonan6 goals
- J. McGovern5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.