Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Derry City 3-3 Shamrock Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Derry City, 28% draw, 28% Shamrock Rovers — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derry City at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13T. NorcottG
- 22C. BarrD
- 4J. StottD
- 3P. McCleanD
- 19B. FlemingD
- 12D. BurnsM
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 14E. ChapmanM
- 7M. DuffyM
- 29T. SmithF
- 1B. MaherG
- 23C. DummiganD
- 2B. CotterD
- 24B. Lyons-FosterD
- 25C. GroganD
- 28J. OlayinkaM
- 36M. McColganF
- 32T. DohertyF
- 38Y. PrigentM
- 1E. McGintyG
- 2A. MatthewsD
- 5L. GraceD
- 27C. O'SullivanD
- 8M. HealyM
- 22T. SobowaleM
- 26J. O'Sullivan
- 29J. ByrneM
- 19A. BrennanM
- 31M. NoonanF
- 10G. BurkeF
- 41A. NoonanG
- 17L. O'Regan
- 3E. StevensD
- 6D. ClearyD
- 7D. WattsM
- 11J. MulraneyM
- 9A. GreeneF
- 24W. FitzgeraldF
- 88J. McGovernF
Form going into Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
All competitions we cover
- L0-1HNK Rijeka30 July 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026
Shamrock Rovers
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to KuPS27 August 2026
- D1-1KuPS20 August 2026
- L1-5away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë13 August 2026
- W3-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë4 August 2026
- W2-1Ararat-Armenia28 July 2026
What these results say
- Shamrock Rovers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shamrock Rovers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Shamrock Rovers.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 |
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 68 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Derry City and Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern107
- G. Burke84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.