Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Vasco da Gama 3-1 Cruzeiro.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Vasco da Gama, 25% draw, 30% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Leo JardimG
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 5S. SosaM
- 28AdsonM
- 3Tche TcheM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 11A. GomezM
- 9F. ColidioF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 2J. RodriguezD
- 4A. SaldiviaD
- 82Riquelme AvellarD
- 80B. AndreD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 70Euder
- 7DavidF
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 12William FurtadoD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27G. RojasD
- 5Ze LucasM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 67J. CostaM
- 97L. RodriguezM
- 70KenjiM
- 22N. VillarrealF
- 1CassioG
- 23FagnerD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 29L. RomeroM
- 94WandersonF
- 11MarquinhosF
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
Vasco da Gama
- L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
Cruzeiro
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro
- 15 March 2026Cruzeiro 3–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 27 September 2025Vasco da Gama 2–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 27 April 2025Cruzeiro 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 29 September 2024Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 16 June 2024Vasco da Gama 0–0 CruzeiroSerie A
- 22 November 2023Cruzeiro 2–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.