Vasco da Gama
vs
Cruzeiro
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 37% Vasco da Gama, 22% draw, 41% Cruzeiro — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.83, Cruzeiro 1.93.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Vasco da Gama
- D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
- D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 July 2026
- L0-1Atletico Mineiro31 May 2026
- L0-3RB Bragantino24 May 2026
Cruzeiro
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
- L0-1Botafogo26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Internacional23 July 2026
- D1-1Fluminense31 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 22 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Vasco da Gama carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.87 for Cruzeiro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Vasco da Gama L-L-L-D-D; Cruzeiro D-W-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.93 for Cruzeiro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasco da Gama rate 0.94 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cruzeiro rate 1.06 and 1.03.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cruzeiro the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 1.93 for Cruzeiro. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.03 for Cruzeiro.