Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Cadiz vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction

JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz

Our model says: Cadiz 1–2 Cordoba

The model makes it 36% Cadiz, 26% draw, 38% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Cadiz 1.52, Cordoba 1.56.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Cadiz and Cordoba are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cadiz's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Cordoba's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

  • Cadiz are 20th on 10 points from 13 games; Cordoba are 10th on 20 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
  • Cadiz have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Oviedo.
  • Cordoba are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Mallorca.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cordoba 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Cadiz 0–1 Cordoba.

More Segunda División predictions

All Segunda División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cadiz vs Cordoba

62%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cadiz win Draw Cordoba win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Cadiz first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cordoba at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cadiz vs Cordoba

Cadiz

Segunda División

  • L1-2Oviedo7 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Mallorca2 November 2026
  • W3-1AD Ceuta FC25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Granada CF18 October 2026
  • L0-1Sporting Gijon11 October 2026

Cordoba

Segunda División

  • D3-3away to Mallorca14 November 2026
  • W3-0AD Ceuta FC7 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Celta de Vigo II31 October 2026
  • W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cadiz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Cadiz132471618-210
10Cordoba146262525020

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Cordoba

  • 25 July 2026Cadiz 0–1 CordobaFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 April 2026Cadiz 1–3 CordobaSegunda División
  • 30 November 2025Cordoba 1–2 CadizSegunda División
  • 9 August 2025Cadiz 1–1 CordobaFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2025Cordoba 4–2 CadizSegunda División
  • 17 November 2024Cadiz 2–0 CordobaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Cadiz and Cordoba

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • Percan63
  • Eder García42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cadiz a 0% chance of the title and Cordoba 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cadiz Cordoba
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.84
1.54 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.66
1.52 Model expected goals (this match) 1.56

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cordoba the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cadiz against 1.56 for Cordoba. Cadiz's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.66 for Cordoba.

Cadiz carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.52 for Cordoba. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for Cordoba to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cordoba to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Cadiz's ratings add 3 points and Cordoba's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage30%−6
  3. Cadiz's ratings33%+3
  4. Cordoba's ratings38%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CadizCordoba
13Matches14
2W 4D 7LRecord6W 2D 6L
16 1.2 per gameGoals scored25 1.8 per game
18 1.4 per gameGoals conceded25 1.8 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets3 of 14
4 of 13Failed to score1 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
42 3.2 per gameYellow cards50 3.6 per game
0Red cards2
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-3-3 13×

Cadiz at home · Cordoba away

8Played8
2W 2D 4LRecord2W 2D 4L
10–8Goals for – against14–17
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Cadiz 13, Cordoba 14.

Cadiz scored 120442
Cordoba conceded 442367
Cordoba scored 642533
Cadiz conceded 126533

Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Cadiz have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Cadiz

  • at Burgos6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
  • vs Sabadell13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
  • at FC Andorra20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%

Cordoba

  • vs Las Palmas6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
  • vs Castellón13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
  • at Real Sociedad II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
  • vs FC Andorra3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.