AS Trencin
vs
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: AS Trencin 2–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica
The model makes it 43% AS Trencin, 28% draw, 29% Dukla Banská Bystrica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AS Trencin 1.76, Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AS Trencin are 11th on 5 points from 8 games; Dukla Banská Bystrica are 9th on 7 points from 9 games — Super Liga.
- AS Trencin are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Žilina.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Zemplín Michalovce.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2025, ended AS Trencin 2–2 Dukla Banská Bystrica.
All Slovak Super Liga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Trencin at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica
AS Trencin
- L1-2away to Žilina19 September 2026
- L1-4Dunajska Streda12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zemplín Michalovce5 September 2026
- W2-1Ružomberok29 August 2026
- L0-4Spartak Trnava23 August 2026
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- L0-1away to Zemplín Michalovce19 September 2026
- W3-2Skalica12 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Košice6 September 2026
- D2-2Komárno29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ružomberok22 August 2026
What these results say
- AS Trencin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for AS Trencin had three goals or more.
- AS Trencin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dukla Banská Bystrica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AS Trencin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 5 |
| 9 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Trencin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 25 April 2025AS Trencin 2–2 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 29 March 2025Dukla Banská Bystrica 2–3 AS TrencinSuper Liga
- 23 November 2024Dukla Banská Bystrica 6–1 AS TrencinSuper Liga
- 17 August 2024AS Trencin 2–2 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 11 May 2024AS Trencin 2–0 Dukla Banská BystricaSuper Liga
- 30 March 2024Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–2 AS TrencinSuper Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AS Trencin carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.11 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for AS Trencin and 1.21 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Trencin rate 0.51 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dukla Banská Bystrica rate 0.48 and 2.12.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dukla Banská Bystrica, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Trencin the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for AS Trencin against 1.21 for Dukla Banská Bystrica. AS Trencin's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.12 for Dukla Banská Bystrica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Trencin at home · Dukla Banská Bystrica away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: AS Trencin 8, Dukla Banská Bystrica 9.
Dukla Banská Bystrica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); AS Trencin have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AS Trencin
- at Skalica17 Oct · Super Ligawin 29%
- at Komárno25 Oct · Super Ligawin 28%
- vs Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · Super Ligawin 23%
- vs FK Košice31 Oct · Super Ligawin 35%
- at Slovan Bratislava7 Nov · Super Ligawin 14%
Dukla Banská Bystrica
- vs Podbrezová18 Oct · Super Ligawin 33%
- at Slovan Bratislava24 Oct · Super Ligawin 13%
- vs Dunajska Streda1 Nov · Super Ligawin 20%
- vs Spartak Trnava7 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%
- at Žilina21 Nov · Super Ligawin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.