12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Dunkerque 2-1 Saint Etienne.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Dunkerque, 27% draw, 38% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Saint Etienne at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque95%Draw5%Saint Etienne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Julien Le Cardinal
Adrian Lebeau
39'
43'
⚽Augustine Boakyeassist: Zuriko Davitashvili
🔁Adrian Lebeauout: Gaëtan Robail
45'
51'
Tamar Svetlin
⚽Khalil Ayariassist: Souleymane Keita
52'
Khalil Ayari
52'
53'
🔁Tamar Svetlinout: Ben Old
53'
🔁Thierno Balloout: Jakob Breum
⚽Souleymane Keitaassist: Victor Mayela
58'
70'
🔁Irvin Cardonaout: Joshua Duffus
70'
🔁Kevin Pedroout: João Ferreira
🔁Khalil Ayariout: Ousmane Touré
71'
🔁Souleymane Keitaout: Enzo Mayilla
71'
77'
🔁Maxime Bernauerout: Nadir El Jamali
🔁Egor Prutsevout: Steven​ N'Zonzi
77'
🔁Jordan Morelout: Franck Leroy Atoen
85'
Théna Massock
90'
Franck Leroy Atoen
90+6'

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne

43%Possession57%
7Shots11
2On target5
3Corners3

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 24L. VallierD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 7K. AyariM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 19S. KeitaF
Substitutes
  • 25Franck AtoenM
  • 17P. M. DiengM
  • 9G. RobailF
  • 4B. LagaeD
  • 94E. MayillaF
  • 33Noah NemorinF
  • 15S. NzonziM
  • 36Mouhamed SissokhoG
  • 2O. TouréD
Coach: Albert Sánchez
Saint Etienne 4-2-3-1
  • 30G. LarsonneurG
  • 23K. PedroD
  • 26J. Le CardinalD
  • 18S. NairD
  • 6M. BernauerD
  • 16T. SvetlinM
  • 14Á. CsongvaiM
  • 20A. BoakyeM
  • 22Z. DavitashviliM
  • 8T. BalloM
  • 7I. CardonaF
Substitutes
  • 1Mamour NdiayeG
  • 17J. DuffusF
  • 40L. LavalléeG
  • 13João FerreiraD
  • 15Chico LambaD
  • 31N. El JamaliM
  • 10J. BreumM
  • 32Adam BaallalM
  • 11B. OldF
Coach: Ian Cathro

Form going into Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne

Dunkerque

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
  • L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026
  • W4-2Grenoble8 August 2026

Saint Etienne

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
  • W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
  • W3-1Clermont Foot14 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Sochaux8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Saint Etienne won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunkerque103341416-212
1Saint Etienne10811238+1525

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne

  • 11 April 2026Saint Etienne 2–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 6 December 2025Dunkerque 1–0 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 3 February 2024Dunkerque 1–0 Saint EtienneLigue 2
  • 4 October 2023Saint Etienne 2–0 DunkerqueLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Saint Etienne

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev31

Saint Etienne

GoalsAssists

  • A. Boakye63
  • I. Cardona54
  • T. Ballo52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunkerque beat Saint Etienne 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Saint Etienne at 38% and given a win for Dunkerque 35%. The goals: Augustine Boakye 43' for Saint Etienne, Khalil Ayari 52' for Dunkerque, Souleymane Keita 58' for Dunkerque.

How the call on Dunkerque v Saint Etienne has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Saint Etienne's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Dunkerque win35%▼ −4
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Saint Etienne win38%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.