Dunkerque
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Dunkerque 2-1 Saint Etienne.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Dunkerque, 27% draw, 34% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.74, Saint Etienne 1.56.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunkerque at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne
Dunkerque
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
- L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026
- D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026
Saint Etienne
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
- W3-1Clermont Foot14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dunkerque | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Saint Etienne
- 11 April 2026Saint Etienne 2–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 6 December 2025Dunkerque 1–0 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 3 February 2024Dunkerque 1–0 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 4 October 2023Saint Etienne 2–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Saint Etienne
Dunkerque
- E. Prutsev2 goals1 assists
- S. Keita2 goals1 assists
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona4 goals4 assists
- T. Ballo4 goals2 assists
- A. Boakye3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.51 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Dunkerque and 1.56 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 0.71 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.76 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Saint Etienne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dunkerque a 0.1% chance of the title and Saint Etienne 97.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dunkerque the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Dunkerque against 1.56 for Saint Etienne. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.51 for Saint Etienne.