VPS
vs
HJK Helsinki
Finnish Premier League prediction
Our model says: VPS 1–2 HJK Helsinki
The model makes it 25% VPS, 24% draw, 51% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: VPS 1.35, HJK Helsinki 2.12.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: HJK Helsinki are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. VPS's rating is built from 55 Finnish Premier League matches and HJK Helsinki's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 513 matches.
Key facts
- VPS are bottom on 39 points from 28 games; HJK Helsinki are 2nd on 51 points from 28 games — Finnish Premier League.
- VPS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to KuPS.
- HJK Helsinki are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Gnistan.
- Last 6 meetings: HJK Helsinki 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 October 2026, ended HJK Helsinki 6–0 VPS.
More Finnish Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VPS vs HJK Helsinki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HJK Helsinki at 51% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VPS vs HJK Helsinki
VPS
- L0-2away to KuPS18 October 2026
- W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
- L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
HJK Helsinki
- W4-0Gnistan17 October 2026
- W4-3away to AC Oulu12 October 2026
- W6-0VPS8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gnistan18 September 2026
- D0-0away to KuPS13 September 2026
What these results say
- VPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- VPS failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HJK Helsinki went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- HJK Helsinki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VPS | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 39 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VPS vs HJK Helsinki
- 8 October 2026HJK Helsinki 6–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 18 July 2026HJK Helsinki 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 22 May 2026VPS 2–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
- 5 July 2025VPS 0–2 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
- 26 April 2025HJK Helsinki 3–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 20 September 2024VPS 1–1 HJK HelsinkiFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: VPS and HJK Helsinki
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
HJK Helsinki
GoalsAssists
- M. Borchers131
- T. Pukki42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VPS carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.43 for HJK Helsinki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for VPS and 2.12 for HJK Helsinki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VPS rate 0.43 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HJK Helsinki rate 0.78 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VPS a 0% chance of the title and HJK Helsinki 33.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HJK Helsinki the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for VPS against 2.12 for HJK Helsinki. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.88 for HJK Helsinki.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VPS at home · HJK Helsinki away
League matches only, Finnish Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Finnish Premier League matches this season: VPS 28, HJK Helsinki 28.
VPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); HJK Helsinki have let in 4 there.
HJK Helsinki score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); VPS have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
VPS
- at Gnistan8 Nov · Finnish Premier Leaguewin 27%
HJK Helsinki
- vs AC Oulu8 Nov · Finnish Premier Leaguewin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.