Gnistan vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 1-1 KuPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gnistan, 24% draw, 24% KuPS — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Finnish Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gnistan at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gnistan vs KuPS
Line-ups
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 24P. GnanouD
- 67A. ObileyeD
- 19B. MilovanovD
- 14S. EremenkoM
- 31A. JouhiM
- 15G. EuropaeusM
- 12E. Arko-MensahM
- 7A. AtarahF
- 10J. LatonenF
- 23S. YlätupaF
- 11D. PérezF
- 27O. HannulaM
- 25Noah RossiD
- 40J. OjalaD
- 2B. DahlströmD
- 32Niklas LindströmG
- 3RuxiD
- 1J. KreidlG
- 6S. SavolainenD
- 33T. HämäläinenD
- 4K. AdamsD
- 25C. AntwiD
- 10V. GascM
- 8P. PennanenM
- 34J. EskesenM
- 22S. TourayM
- 15A. AikiM
- 20P. ParzyszekF
- 11J. MorenoF
- 9G. EngvallF
- 14S. PasanenM
- 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaF
- 13N. KujasaloM
- 16T. JyryM
- 29A. PuukkoD
- 23A. LötjönenD
- 12H. RiihimäkiG
Form going into Gnistan vs KuPS
Gnistan
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
- W3-2Ilves17 August 2026
- D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026
KuPS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- W1-0Shamrock Rovers27 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Shamrock Rovers20 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
What these results say
- Gnistan went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Gnistan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Gnistan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- KuPS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- KuPS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gnistan | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 44 | 42 | +2 | 43 |
| 3 | KuPS | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 46 | 29 | +17 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs KuPS
- 1 August 2026Gnistan 0–1 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 11 April 2026KuPS 1–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 30 October 2025KuPS 1–1 GnistanFinnish Premier League
- 27 September 2025Gnistan 0–4 KuPSFinnish Premier League
- 1 July 2025KuPS 6–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: Gnistan and KuPS
Gnistan
GoalsAssists
- A. Akinyemi50
KuPS
GoalsAssists
- J. Moreno71
- B. Armah40
- P. Pennanen33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gnistan and KuPS drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gnistan at 52% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Piotr Parzyszek 39' for KuPS, Bogdan Milovanov 48' for Gnistan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.