Gnistan vs KuPS Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Gnistan 1-1 KuPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Gnistan, 24% draw, 24% KuPS — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gnistan at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gnistan vs KuPS
Line-ups
- 1O. VirtanenG
- 24P. GnanouD
- 67A. ObileyeD
- 19B. MilovanovD
- 14S. EremenkoM
- 31A. JouhiM
- 15G. EuropaeusM
- 12E. Arko-MensahM
- 7A. AtarahF
- 10J. LatonenF
- 23S. YlätupaF
- 11D. PérezF
- 27O. HannulaM
- 25Noah RossiD
- 40J. OjalaD
- 2B. DahlströmD
- 32Niklas LindströmG
- 3RuxiD
- 1J. KreidlG
- 6S. SavolainenD
- 33T. HämäläinenD
- 4K. AdamsD
- 25C. AntwiD
- 10V. GascM
- 8P. PennanenM
- 34J. EskesenM
- 22S. TourayM
- 15A. AikiM
- 20P. ParzyszekF
- 11J. MorenoF
- 9G. EngvallF
- 14S. PasanenM
- 21J. Luyeye-LutumbaF
- 13N. KujasaloM
- 16T. JyryM
- 29A. PuukkoD
- 23A. LötjönenD
- 12H. RiihimäkiG
Form going into Gnistan vs KuPS
Gnistan
- D1-1Turku PS31 August 2026
- W3-2away to HJK Helsinki23 August 2026
- W3-2Ilves17 August 2026
KuPS
- L0-1away to Inter Turku31 August 2026
- L2-4Mariehamn23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lahti16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gnistan vs KuPS
- 8 September 2026Gnistan 1–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 1 August 2026Gnistan 0–1 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 11 April 2026KuPS 1–0 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 30 October 2025KuPS 1–1 GnistanVeikkausliiga
- 27 September 2025Gnistan 0–4 KuPSVeikkausliiga
- 1 July 2025KuPS 6–2 GnistanVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Gnistan and KuPS
Gnistan
- A. Akinyemi3 goals
KuPS
- J. Moreno5 goals
- B. Armah3 goals
- P. Pennanen2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.