Atlanta United FC
vs
Orlando City SC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 33% Atlanta United FC, 24% draw, 43% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.53, Orlando City SC 1.75.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
The two sides
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.64 for Orlando City SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlanta United FC L-L-W-W-W; Orlando City SC W-L-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.75 for Orlando City SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orlando City SC rate 0.79 and 1.21.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 601 correct results out of 1266 settled predictions (47%), with 115 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 1.75 for Orlando City SC. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.21 for Orlando City SC.