8 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

VPS vs AC Oulu Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
Full time1 – 0

Final score: VPS 1-0 AC Oulu.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% VPS, 28% draw, 39% AC Oulu — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AC Oulu at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VPS95%Draw5%AC Oulu0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
8'
45'
⚽Rasmus Karjalainen (pen)
🔁Joonas Vahteraout: Xavier Odhiambo
45'
58'
🔁Niklas Jokelainenout: Lamine Ghezali
Yassin Daoussi
59'
🔁Yassin Daoussiout: Antti-Ville Raisanen
66'
🔁Simon Lindholmout: Casper Holmelund
66'
74'
🔁Rasmus Karjalainenout: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
74'
🔁Santeri Silanderout: Otto Kemppainen
78'
Markus Arsalo
Lassana Mané
79'
85'
🔁Markus Arsaloout: Julius Paananen
🔁Paulo Limaout: Razak Simpson
85'
🔁Xavier Odhiamboout: Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
89'
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
90'
Casper Holmelund
90+2'

Match stats — VPS vs AC Oulu

41%Possession59%
7Shots16
2On target5
2Corners8

Line-ups

VPS 3-4-1-2
  • 41M. JallohG
  • 23M. NiemiD
  • 6E. OkerekeD
  • 19M. HaukiojaD
  • 24Y. DaoussiM
  • 2L. ManeM
  • 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
  • 7J. TurfkruierM
  • 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
  • 14S. LindholmF
  • 30J. VahteraF
Substitutes
  • 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
  • 26R. ForsbackaM
  • 9C. HolmelundF
  • 20X. OdhiamboF
  • 34A. RäisänenM
  • 3Razak SimpsonM
  • 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
  • 17Dren TërrnavaM
  • 12L. VäyrynenG
Coach: J. Nuorela
AC Oulu 4-3-3
  • 13Miguel SantosG
  • 29S. SilanderD
  • 5M. PitkänenD
  • 66J. PirinenD
  • 18Adramane CassamáD
  • 21I. MendolinM
  • 25M. ArsaloM
  • 22T. KaukuaM
  • 14N. JokelainenF
  • 9R. RiskiF
  • 7R. KarjalainenF
Substitutes
  • 2S. SipolaD
  • 6J. PaananenM
  • 8M. OjalaM
  • 3J. LietsaD
  • 16O. KemppainenD
  • 27E. KallioF
  • 11L. GhezaliF
  • 64Tobias BackmanG
  • 10C. TrianaF
Coach: M. Isokangas

Form going into VPS vs AC Oulu

VPS

  • L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
  • L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026

AC Oulu

  • D0-0SJK31 August 2026
  • W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
  • L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6VPS229672922+733
5AC Oulu2210482525034

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VPS vs AC Oulu

  • 8 September 2026VPS 1–0 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 23 June 2026VPS 5–1 AC OuluVeikkausliiga
  • 18 April 2026AC Oulu 1–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 24 January 2026VPS 1–4 AC OuluLeague Cup
  • 4 October 2025AC Oulu 2–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
  • 28 June 2025AC Oulu 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: VPS and AC Oulu

VPS

  • L. Smyth5 goals

AC Oulu

  • J. Körkkö2 goals2 assists
  • E. Kallio2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.