VPS vs AC Oulu Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: VPS 1-0 AC Oulu.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% VPS, 28% draw, 39% AC Oulu — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Finnish Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Oulu at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VPS vs AC Oulu
Line-ups
- 41M. JallohG
- 23M. NiemiD
- 6E. OkerekeD
- 19M. HaukiojaD
- 24Y. DaoussiM
- 2L. ManeM
- 8Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel LimaM
- 7J. TurfkruierM
- 27K. Kouassivi-BenissanM
- 14S. LindholmF
- 30J. VahteraF
- 21Arnold Adu-BoahenD
- 26R. ForsbackaM
- 9C. HolmelundF
- 20X. OdhiamboF
- 34A. RäisänenM
- 3Razak SimpsonM
- 13Oluwaseyi OgunniyiF
- 17Dren TërrnavaM
- 12L. VäyrynenG
- 13Miguel SantosG
- 29S. SilanderD
- 5M. PitkänenD
- 66J. PirinenD
- 18Adramane CassamáD
- 21I. MendolinM
- 25M. ArsaloM
- 22T. KaukuaM
- 14N. JokelainenF
- 9R. RiskiF
- 7R. KarjalainenF
- 2S. SipolaD
- 6J. PaananenM
- 8M. OjalaM
- 3J. LietsaD
- 16O. KemppainenD
- 27E. KallioF
- 11L. GhezaliF
- 64Tobias BackmanG
- 10C. TrianaF
Form going into VPS vs AC Oulu
VPS
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
- L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
- W3-1away to FF Jaro8 August 2026
AC Oulu
All competitions we cover
- D0-0SJK31 August 2026
- W1-0away to FF Jaro22 August 2026
- L2-3Inter Turku16 August 2026
- L0-1HJK Helsinki9 August 2026
What these results say
- VPS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VPS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AC Oulu failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for AC Oulu had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Finnish Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | VPS | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 40 |
| 4 | AC Oulu | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VPS vs AC Oulu
- 23 June 2026VPS 5–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
- 18 April 2026AC Oulu 1–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 24 January 2026VPS 1–4 AC OuluLeague Cup
- 4 October 2025AC Oulu 2–0 VPSFinnish Premier League
- 28 June 2025AC Oulu 2–1 VPSFinnish Premier League
Leading scorers: VPS and AC Oulu
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
AC Oulu
GoalsAssists
- R. Karjalainen36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VPS beat AC Oulu 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Oulu at 39% and given a win for VPS 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan 8' for VPS.