Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Philadelphia Union, 25% draw, 25% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 6C. SullivanM
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 16B. BenderM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 28A. AnelloF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 24K. SmithD
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 88A. ChirilaD
- 20P. BuchaM
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 66E. EcheniqueM
- 10EvanderF
- 99A. JabbariF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 13E. LouroG
- 4N. HagglundD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 2A. PowellD
- 27T. AnungaM
- 11S. GidiM
- 29B. J. Ramirez LeonD
- 17K. MbomaF
- 16T. BarlowF
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
- W2-0CF Montreal5 September 2026
- W3-1away to New York Red Bulls29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
FC Cincinnati
- L0-4away to Nashville SC30 August 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders22 August 2026
- W2-1New York City FC19 August 2026
- D1-1away to Orlando City SC15 August 2026
- W4-2San Jose Earthquakes1 August 2026
What these results say
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Cincinnati scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for FC Cincinnati.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 42 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 65 | -7 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
- 9 September 2026Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 30 August 2025FC Cincinnati 0–1 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Philadelphia Union 4–1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 7 February 2025FC Cincinnati 4–1 Philadelphia UnionFriendlies Clubs
- 20 October 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2024FC Cincinnati 2–4 Philadelphia UnionLeagues Cup
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski172
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey163
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.