Girona vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 5-2 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Girona, 22% draw, 15% Las Palmas — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 63% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Girona vs Las Palmas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 16A. FrancesD
- 5D. LopezD
- 38H. Zamorano
- 11A. MorenoD
- 17B. GilM
- 8F. BeltranM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 21J. GarciaM
- 9A. RuizF
- 19V. VanatF
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 4J. BonarD
- 39G. BadiaD
- 2A. MuminD
- 6D. van de BeekM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 14I. MoranteM
- 30U. HernandezM
- 7C. StuaniF
- 13J. CaroG
- 27V. PezzolesiD
- 4Alex SuarezD
- 15J. HerzogD
- 5E. ClementeD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 20K. RodriguezM
- 7J. BetancorM
- 14M. FusterF
- 10JeseF
- 35A. SuarezG
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 33V. VilloteD
- 24Ivan JaimeM
- 8S. RuizM
- 6I. GonzalezM
- 16M. AcimovicM
- 30I. MedinaF
Form going into Girona vs Las Palmas
Girona
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Las Palmas
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Las Palmas
- 3 February 2025Girona 2–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 26 October 2024Las Palmas 1–0 GironaLa Liga
- 27 April 2024Las Palmas 0–2 GironaLa Liga
- 3 September 2023Girona 1–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 12 March 2022Las Palmas 1–3 GironaSegunda División
- 22 August 2021Girona 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Las Palmas
Girona
- Y. Asprilla4 goals
Las Palmas
- T. Miyashiro2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.