29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Albacete vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Albacete 0-1 Oviedo.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Albacete, 26% draw, 45% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Oviedo at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Albacete0%Draw4%Oviedo96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Munir El Haddadiout: A. Albarracin
18'
41'
Youness Lachhab
42'
⚽P. Saenzassist: A. Isfan
Lluís López
45+3'
46'
Samu Rodríguez
🔁M. Soberonout: A. Rubio
58'
🔁Pepeout: Agus Medina
59'
65'
🔁J. Gonzalezout: A. Aldasoro
65'
🔁A. Isfanout: V. Mingo
Agustin Medina
67'
72'
Carlos Domínguez
Alex Rubio
75'
🔁Lorenzoout: D. Bernabeu
77'
🔁A. Pachecoout: T. Ingles
77'
77'
🔁A. Ahmedout: N. Vidal
77'
🔁P. Saenzout: E. Perez
88'
🔁D. Villahermosaout: D. Menendez

Match stats — Albacete vs Oviedo

63%Possession37%
10Shots9
2On target5
8Corners5
0.96xG1.36

Goals against chances

Albacete0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth
Oviedo1 from 1.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Albacete 4-4-2
  • 13D. MarinoG
  • 15F. GamezD
  • 23PepeD
  • 22L. LopezD
  • 21C. NevaD
  • 2LorenzoM
  • 18S. OrtunoM
  • 6A. PachecoM
  • 17J. CorpasM
  • 16Munir El HaddadiF
  • 9M. SoberonF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MarinG
  • 24J. VallejoD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27D. BernabeuD
  • 4Agus MedinaM
  • 8J. VillarM
  • 32A. AlbarracinF
  • 38D. RodriguezM
  • 33T. InglesF
Coach: Alberto Gonzalez
Oviedo 5-4-1
  • 13A. EscandellG
  • 2A. AhmedD
  • 4D. CostasD
  • 23C. DominguezD
  • 3J. CruzD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 20P. SaenzM
  • 6D. VillahermosaM
  • 5Y. LachhabM
  • 11J. GonzalezM
  • 24A. IsfanF
Substitutes
  • 1M. NarvaezG
  • 12D. CalvoD
  • 22N. VidalD
  • 16A. AldasoroM
  • 10A. ReinaM
  • 28D. MenendezM
  • 32E. PerezM
  • 18V. MingoF
  • 17E. PedrolaM
Coach: Julian Calero

Form going into Albacete vs Oviedo

Albacete

  • L1-2Real Sociedad II22 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Las Palmas16 August 2026

Oviedo

  • L0-1Leganes22 August 2026
  • D0-0Granada CF15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Albacete7016412-81
8Oviedo832388011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Albacete vs Oviedo

  • 16 February 2025Oviedo 1–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 10 November 2024Albacete 2–2 OviedoSegunda División
  • 9 March 2024Albacete 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
  • 13 October 2023Oviedo 3–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 26 February 2023Oviedo 1–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 15 October 2022Albacete 1–0 OviedoSegunda División
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.