29 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Leganes vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Leganes 1-0 Eldense.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Leganes, 28% draw, 27% Eldense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Leganes at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Leganes4%Draw93%Eldense3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁R. Penaout: D. Rodriguez
63'
🔁P. Sokoout: A. Millan
63'
🔁N. Garciaout: Alex Sancris
63'
67'
🔁J. Martinout: J. Martinez
73'
🔁M. Carmonaout: J. Rastrojo
🔁G. Aguilar Lopezout: R. Pulido
82'
🔁Y. Kechtaout: Sule
82'
83'
🔁Fidelout: M. Nieto
83'
🔁J. Clementeout: A. Ibarrondo
Álex Millán
90+3'
⚽M. Atienzaassist: Sule
90'

Match stats — Leganes vs Eldense

52%Possession48%
11Shots16
6On target4
0Corners8
1.63xG1.01

Goals against chances

Leganes1 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Eldense0 from 1.01 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leganes 3-1-4-2
  • 13L. ZidaneG
  • 6G. Aguilar LopezD
  • 5I. MiquelD
  • 2MarvelD
  • 20M. AtienzaM
  • 11N. GarciaM
  • 10Z. BuurmeesterM
  • 8Y. KechtaM
  • 7R. PenaM
  • 17I. GharbiF
  • 19P. SokoF
Substitutes
  • 38A. GorrinG
  • 31N. LozanoG
  • 4R. PulidoD
  • 29D. HamansenyaD
  • 14D. RodriguezM
  • 9A. MillanF
  • 22Alex SancrisF
  • 18A. CamposF
  • 32SuleF
Coach: Ruben Albes
Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. VilaG
  • 17J. ClementeD
  • 5A. G. SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 18G. MachoM
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 10FidelM
  • 23J. MartinM
  • 21D. RuizM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
Substitutes
  • 36D. Bernabeu
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 22J. YandaD
  • 31A. MarinD
  • 24J. MartinezM
  • 27C. AmarilloM
  • 30D. RodriguezM
  • 11M. NietoF
  • 19A. IbarrondoF
Coach: Claudio Barragan

Form going into Leganes vs Eldense

Leganes

  • W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Girona16 August 2026

Eldense

  • D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Almeria17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Leganes732267-111
15Eldense8224810-28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leganes vs Eldense

  • 5 May 2024Eldense 1–2 LeganesSegunda División
  • 10 December 2023Leganes 1–1 EldenseSegunda División

Leading scorers: Leganes and Eldense

Leganes

  • Naim García2 goals1 assist

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.