Arges Pitesti
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 43% Arges Pitesti, 36% draw, 21% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.33, 2.78 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 0.98, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.61.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Arges Pitesti
- D1-1Farul Constanta14 August 2026
- W1-0away to Universitatea Craiova9 August 2026
- W1-0Csikszereda31 July 2026
- W1-0Petrolul Ploiesti24 July 2026
- L0-2away to FCSB17 July 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D0-0FCSB10 August 2026
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara2 August 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Cluj26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Rapid20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arges Pitesti | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 5 November 2022Arges Pitesti 0–5 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 24 July 2022Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 15 December 2021Arges Pitesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 15 August 2021Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 16 February 2021Arges Pitesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 3 October 2020Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arges Pitesti carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.58 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Arges Pitesti L-W-W-W-D; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe L-W-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Arges Pitesti and 0.61 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arges Pitesti rate 0.55 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.46 and 0.94.
That points to 21% for over two and a half goals and 29% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-0 (21%), 1-0 (19%), 1-1 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arges Pitesti the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 0.61 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.55/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/0.94 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.