Arges Pitesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Arges Pitesti 0-1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Arges Pitesti, 29% draw, 26% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arges Pitesti at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arges Pitesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34C. CabuzG
- 6M. TudoseD
- 15GaruttiD
- 23F. BortaD
- 69O. AlagbeM
- 92T. LuvamboM
- 96S. BalaureM
- 20P. DulceaM
- 19C. MicovschiM
- 17R. MatosF
- 99R. MoldoveanuF
- 1C. StratonG
- 31M. SerbanG
- 3L. SadriuD
- 2C. TofanD
- 26D. OanceaD
- 22V. RataM
- 80X. EmmersM
- 16I. RadescuM
- 9G. CharpentierF
- 91D. LazarG
- 2Gustavo CascardoD
- 31L. RoseD
- 4S. KaramokoD
- 3F. ViannaD
- 17D. AndreiM
- 7R. SilaghiM
- 6N. I. PaunM
- 23H. Batzula
- 20N. HerasF
- 14M. MawaF
- 33S. GyengeG
- 21A. DobrosavleviciD
- 5B. VatajeluD
- 25B. OtelitaD
- 19G. GhimfusM
- 28V. DaguinM
- 30A. NistorM
- 11D. OberlinF
- 88C. DavordzieF
Form going into Arges Pitesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Arges Pitesti
- L0-1away to Oțelul24 August 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- D1-1Farul Constanta23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 5 November 2022Arges Pitesti 0–5 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 24 July 2022Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 15 December 2021Arges Pitesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 15 August 2021Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0–2 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 16 February 2021Arges Pitesti 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 3 October 2020Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.