Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Tenerife 0-1 Sporting Gijon.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Tenerife, 22% draw, 19% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tenerife at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon
Line-ups
- 1D. MartinG
- 19C. AlvarezD
- 12A. LandazuriD
- 4J. LeonD
- 2D. RodriguezD
- 26B. DiocouM
- 6Juanjo SanchezM
- 16J. AlvarezM
- 10N. GilM
- 18EnricF
- 8V. MorenoF
- 40G. De VuystG
- 3R. JureskinD
- 21M. MateuD
- 5J. MorenoD
- 20M. PittonM
- 23A. KrdzalicM
- 15FabricioM
- 29D. FernandezM
- 24I. ChapelaF
- 1R. YanezG
- 2G. RosasD
- 24A. DunabeitiaD
- 15P. VazquezD
- 44A. CuencaD
- 6N. MartinM
- 14A. CorrederaM
- 11K. de la FuenteM
- 10C. Gelabert PinaM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 19J. OteroF
- 13E. AranaG
- 3P. GarciaD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 23J. SaenzD
- 4E. GularteD
- 5D. SanchezD
- 21M. LoumM
- 27E. PrendesF
- 16A. SarcoF
Form going into Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon
Tenerife
- W1-0Almeria23 August 2026
- W3-1away to Eibar16 August 2026
Sporting Gijon
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon
- 5 April 2025Sporting Gijon 1–3 TenerifeSegunda División
- 22 September 2024Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 20 January 2024Tenerife 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 17 September 2023Sporting Gijon 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 25 February 2023Sporting Gijon 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 30 September 2022Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and Sporting Gijon
Tenerife
- Enric Gallego5 goals
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.