Tenerife
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 72% Tenerife, 15% draw, 13% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 1.39, 6.67 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Tenerife 2.98, Sporting Gijon 1.28.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Sporting Gijon
- 5 April 2025Sporting Gijon 1–3 TenerifeSegunda División
- 22 September 2024Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 20 January 2024Tenerife 1–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 17 September 2023Sporting Gijon 2–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 25 February 2023Sporting Gijon 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 30 September 2022Tenerife 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
The two sides
Tenerife carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.75 for Sporting Gijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.98 goals for Tenerife and 1.28 for Sporting Gijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tenerife rate 1.36 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.95 and 1.16.
That points to 80% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tenerife the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.28 for Sporting Gijon. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.16 for Sporting Gijon.