29 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sabadell vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sabadell 1-0 Almeria.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sabadell, 33% draw, 32% Almeria — fair odds of 2.86, 3.03 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sabadell at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sabadell97%Draw3%Almeria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Nicholas Gioacchini
15'
Arthur Bonaldo
16'
35'
Nicolás Melamed
Nicholas Gioacchini
38'
Quadri Liameed
45+3'
45+4'
Adrián Embarba
⚽N. Gioacchiniassist: T. Ripoll
53'
58'
🔁J. Morcilloout: Q. Junyent
58'
🔁A. Embarbaout: B. Cipenga
58'
🔁N. Melamedout: Leo Baptistao
🔁J. Catalaout: Pipa
62'
🔁N. Gioacchiniout: G. Valles
62'
Albert Orriols
63'
🔁P. Ponsout: Y. Rahmani
73'
🔁Bonaldoout: E. Aguilar Elizalde
73'
75'
🔁M. Vesgaout: M. Luna
75'
🔁D. Chirinoout: A. Sola
🔁T. Ripollout: J. C. Lazaro Cervera
86'
Miki Codina
88'

Match stats — Sabadell vs Almeria

43%Possession57%
14Shots11
4On target2
4Corners3
1.89xG0.79

Goals against chances

Sabadell1 from 1.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Almeria0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sabadell 4-4-2
  • 1D. FuoliG
  • 27J. CatalaD
  • 14O. SanzD
  • 5BonaldoD
  • 4M. CodinaD
  • 7T. RipollM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 20A. Orriols CerarolsM
  • 8P. PonsM
  • 23J. PriegoF
  • 16N. GioacchiniF
Substitutes
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 31M. EstevezG
  • 2PipaD
  • 15J. C. Lazaro CerveraD
  • 19Y. RahmaniF
  • 24E. Aguilar ElizaldeM
  • 30X. MorenoM
  • 17A. CosciaF
  • 10M. A. Ramirez CarrascoF
Coach: Ferran Costa
Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FernandezG
  • 22D. ChirinoD
  • 5J. PulidoD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 29S. DzodicM
  • 6M. VesgaM
  • 23A. EmbarbaM
  • 10N. MelamedM
  • 7J. MorcilloM
  • 24M. de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 13F. MartinezG
  • 30J. LopezG
  • 19Rodrigo ElyD
  • 21ChumiD
  • 2M. LunaD
  • 4N. MonteD
  • 33Q. JunyentM
  • 20A. SolaM
  • 17B. CipengaM
Coach: Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco

Form going into Sabadell vs Almeria

Sabadell

  • D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Sporting Gijon17 August 2026

Almeria

  • L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
  • W3-0Eldense17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Sabadell733186+212
3Almeria7502114+715

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Almeria

  • 24 January 2021Almeria 2–2 SabadellSegunda División
  • 5 November 2020Sabadell 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Sabadell and Almeria

Sabadell

  • N. Gioacchini3 goals

Almeria

  • Javi Muñoz2 goals2 assists
  • Miguel de la Fuente2 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.