Gimnasia Mendoza
vs
Deportivo Riestra
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0 Deportivo Riestra
The model makes it 37% Gimnasia Mendoza, 31% draw, 32% Deportivo Riestra — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimnasia Mendoza 1.21, Deportivo Riestra 1.07.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Deportivo Riestra
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Gimnasia Mendoza wins, grey are draws, red are Deportivo Riestra wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Deportivo Riestra
Gimnasia Mendoza
- L0-2away to Defensa Y Justicia11 September 2026
- D2-2Boca Juniors5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
- W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
Deportivo Riestra
- L0-3Lanus14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Platense4 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Huracan23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Newell's Old Boys15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Deportivo Riestra
- 12 March 2026Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Gimnasia MendozaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 23 March 2022Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
- 18 October 2021Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
- 23 June 2021Gimnasia Mendoza 1–1 Deportivo RiestraPrimera Nacional
- 14 December 2020Deportivo Riestra 1–3 Gimnasia MendozaPrimera Nacional
Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Deportivo Riestra
Gimnasia Mendoza
- A. Módica12 goals
Deportivo Riestra
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimnasia Mendoza carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.66 for Deportivo Riestra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Gimnasia Mendoza and 1.07 for Deportivo Riestra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimnasia Mendoza rate 0.70 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Riestra rate 0.71 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gimnasia Mendoza a 10.3% chance of the title and Deportivo Riestra 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gimnasia Mendoza against 1.07 for Deportivo Riestra. Gimnasia Mendoza's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.06 for Deportivo Riestra.