Union Santa Fe
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Union Santa Fe 1–0 Independiente
The model makes it 39% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 32% Independiente — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.44, Independiente 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Union Santa Fe wins, grey are draws, red are Independiente wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
Union Santa Fe
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
Independiente
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
- 22 May 2026Union Santa Fe 0–2 IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 10 March 2026Independiente 4–4 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 November 2024Independiente 3–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 June 2023Union Santa Fe 3–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 September 2022Union Santa Fe 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 October 2021Independiente 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Independiente
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.72 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.22 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.83 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.82 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Independiente, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 2.9% chance of the title and Independiente 3.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union Santa Fe the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.22 for Independiente. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.07 for Independiente.