Union Santa Fe vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Union Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Union Santa Fe, 29% draw, 32% Independiente — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Santa Fe at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
Line-ups
- 21M. MansillaG
- 15J. PintadoD
- 4M. RochaD
- 26J. LuduenaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 5L. MenossiM
- 22B. CuelloM
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 40L. MeuliG
- 36M. AimarD
- 12B. PittonD
- 27T. RubioD
- 44T. FagioliD
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 10I. MalcorraM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 34M. PeresuttiM
- 33R. ReyG
- 29L. GodoyD
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 22F. ZabalaD
- 16M. Perez CurciM
- 23I. MarconeM
- 8M. MezaM
- 7S. MontielF
- 6C. AvilaF
- 24J. PalaisF
- 77S. MeleG
- 36S. ValdezD
- 4S. AriasD
- 2F. CalderonD
- 10L. CabralM
- 32D. MartinezM
- 14L. MillanM
- 9I. MoralesF
- 19M. AbaldoF
Form going into Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
Union Santa Fe
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
- W4-1Sarmiento Junin28 August 2026
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
Independiente
All competitions we cover
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
- D0-0Independiente Rivadavia22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lanus17 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Santa Fe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union Santa Fe had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Independiente | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Santa Fe vs Independiente
- 22 May 2026Union Santa Fe 0–2 IndependienteCopa Argentina
- 10 March 2026Independiente 4–4 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 November 2024Independiente 3–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 June 2023Union Santa Fe 3–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 September 2022Union Santa Fe 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 26 October 2021Independiente 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Union Santa Fe and Independiente
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona152
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Independiente won 2–1 at Union Santa Fe. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Santa Fe at 39% and given a win for Independiente 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Estigarriba 49' for Union Santa Fe, Santiago Gabriel Montiel 51' for Independiente, Maximiliano Meza 57' for Independiente.
How the call on Union Santa Fe v Independiente has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Independiente's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Union Santa Fe win39%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Independiente win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.