Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Racing Club 3-1 Sarmiento Junin.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Racing Club, 28% draw, 38% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Facundo CambesesG
- 11Matías ZarachoD
- 38Mateo MartinezD
- 6Marcos RojoD
- 43Gonzalo EscuderoD
- 19Ignacio RodríguezD
- 16Ulises OrtegozaM
- 33Leonel PérezM
- 20Gastón LodicoM
- 32Lautaro DíazF
- 9Adrián MartínezF
- 23Nazareno ColomboD
- 5Matías KranevitterM
- 10Matko MiljevicM
- 22Elías TorresF
- 7Duván VergaraF
- 30Matías TagliamonteG
- 18PachaD
- 48Gonzalo LeivaM
- 46Alejandro TelloM
- 12Thyago AyalaG
- 8Santiago SalleD
- 44Renzo OrihuelaD
- 2Juan Manuel InsaurraldeD
- 77Nicolás PasquiniD
- 19Julian ContreraM
- 15Cristian ZabalaM
- 16Mauricio MartínezM
- 21Julián MavillaM
- 27Junior MarabelF
- 24Jonathan HerreraF
- 10Jhon RenteriaM
- 9Diego ChurinF
- 33Gabriel DíazD
- 23Elián GiménezM
- 11Gastón GonzálezF
- 1Iván ArboledaG
- 6Gastón ArturiaD
- 20Ulises GiménezD
- 29Thiago SantamaríaD
Form going into Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Huracan14 September 2026
- L1-2Atletico Tucuman7 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente Rivadavia31 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors24 August 2026
- L0-1Banfield14 August 2026
Sarmiento Junin
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
- W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
What these results say
- Racing Club did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Racing Club conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Racing Club scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sarmiento Junin had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Racing Club | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
- 11 March 2026Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 July 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 March 2024Racing Club 0–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 October 2023Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Racing ClubCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 March 2023Racing Club 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Racing Club and Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Sarmiento Junin
GoalsAssists
- J. Marabel145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Racing Club beat Sarmiento Junin 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarmiento Junin at 38% and given a win for Racing Club 34%. The goals: G. Escudero 23' for Racing Club, J. Marabel 26' for Sarmiento Junin, Adrian Martinez 52' for Racing Club, I. Rodriguez 80' for Racing Club. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.61.
How the call on Racing Club v Sarmiento Junin has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Sarmiento Junin's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Racing Club win34%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Sarmiento Junin win38%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.