Racing Club
vs
Sarmiento Junin
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Racing Club 1–2 Sarmiento Junin
The model makes it 34% Racing Club, 28% draw, 38% Sarmiento Junin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Racing Club 1.43, Sarmiento Junin 1.59.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Racing Club wins, grey are draws, red are Sarmiento Junin wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
- L1-2away to Huracan14 September 2026
- L1-2Atletico Tucuman7 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente Rivadavia31 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors24 August 2026
- L0-1Banfield14 August 2026
Sarmiento Junin
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
- W2-0Huracan16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin
- 11 March 2026Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 July 2024Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 March 2024Racing Club 0–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 October 2023Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Racing ClubCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 12 March 2023Racing Club 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 3 July 2022Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Racing Club and Sarmiento Junin
Racing Club
No leading scorers listed yet.
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel12 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Racing Club carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.73 for Sarmiento Junin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Racing Club and 1.59 for Sarmiento Junin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Club rate 0.79 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarmiento Junin rate 0.87 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Racing Club against 1.59 for Sarmiento Junin. Racing Club's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.11 for Sarmiento Junin.