River Plate
vs
Huracan
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: River Plate 2–1 Huracan
The model makes it 46% River Plate, 27% draw, 27% Huracan — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: River Plate 1.98, Huracan 1.21.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: River Plate vs Huracan
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are River Plate wins, grey are draws, red are Huracan wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into River Plate vs Huracan
River Plate
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
- D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Argentinos Juniors16 August 2026
Huracan
- W2-1Racing Club14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Belgrano Cordoba4 September 2026
- D1-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto29 August 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Riestra23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: River Plate vs Huracan
- 13 March 2026Huracan 1–2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 10 August 2024River Plate 1–1 HuracanLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 March 2024Huracan 1–0 River PlateCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 4 November 2023River Plate 1–2 HuracanCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 9 April 2023Huracan 0–3 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 4 July 2022Huracan 3–2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: River Plate and Huracan
River Plate
- S. Driussi6 goals
Huracan
- J. Caicedo13 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
River Plate carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.62 for Huracan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for River Plate and 1.21 for Huracan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
River Plate rate 0.93 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huracan rate 0.82 and 1.31.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for River Plate against 1.21 for Huracan. River Plate's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.31 for Huracan.