5 September 2026, 19:30 UTC

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Gimnasia Mendoza 2-2 Boca Juniors.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gimnasia Mendoza, 29% draw, 31% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gimnasia Mendoza at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia Mendoza0%Draw5%Boca Juniors95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Kevin Zenón
17'
⚽A. Velascoassist: T. Belmonte
⚽I. Sabatiniassist: F. Antonini
19'
🔁T. O'Connorout: M. Vargas
20'
Luciano Cingolani
37'
38'
⚽K. Zenonassist: D. Gorosito
57'
Nicolás Figal
59'
🔁A. Velascoout: Carlos Palacios
65'
Carlos Palacios
68'
🔁M. Satasout: L. Blanco
68'
🔁M. Pellegrinoout: F. Herrera
70'
Lautaro Blanco
•Ignacio Sabatini
71'
78'
🔁K. Zenonout: L. Di Lollo
78'
🔁T. Belmonteout: W. H. Alarcon Cepeda
🔁L. Paredesout: I. Cortez
80'
🔁F. Antoniniout: N. Barboza
80'
🔁L. Cingolaniout: V. Simoni
81'
🔁D. Mondinoout: B. Andrada
90+1'
⚽E. Fernandez
90'

Match stats — Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors

59%Possession41%
17Shots12
7On target6
5Corners6
1.8xG1.78

Goals against chances

Gimnasia Mendoza2 from 1.80 xGabout what the chances were worth
Boca Juniors2 from 1.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MunozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 28T. O'ConnorM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 30E. FernandezM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 17I. SabatiniF
Substitutes
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 16G. GuiffreyD
  • 36I. CortezD
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 33B. AndradaF
  • 8M. VargasF
  • 11S. RodriguezF
Coach: Ariel Broggi
Boca Juniors 4-3-3
  • 1A. MonteroG
  • 24D. GorositoD
  • 4J. FigalD
  • 26M. PellegrinoD
  • 46M. SatasD
  • 8T. BelmonteM
  • 23C. Rey DomenechM
  • 21K. ZenonM
  • 20A. VelascoF
  • 13E. ValenciaF
  • 19L. FloresF
Substitutes
  • 12L. BreyG
  • 3L. BlancoD
  • 2L. Di LolloD
  • 42F. HerreraD
  • 5L. ParedesM
  • 7Carlos PalaciosF
  • 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
  • 40L. BiancoF
  • 11Angel RomeroF
Coach: Rodolfo Arruabarrena

Form going into Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors

Gimnasia Mendoza

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Independiente30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Gimnasia La Plata22 August 2026
  • W3-1Talleres Cordoba18 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba9 August 2026
  • W2-0Union Santa Fe1 August 2026

Boca Juniors

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Lanus29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Racing Club24 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Platense16 August 2026
  • D1-1Velez Sarsfield8 August 2026
  • W1-0Estudiantes La Plata5 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gimnasia Mendoza won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia Mendoza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Boca Juniors had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Gimnasia Mendoza146261615+120
3Boca Juniors147612214+827

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Gimnasia Mendoza and Boca Juniors

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia Mendoza and Boca Juniors drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Gimnasia Mendoza at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Velasco 17' for Boca Juniors, I. Sabatini 19' for Gimnasia Mendoza, K. Zenon 38' for Boca Juniors, E. Fernandez 90' for Gimnasia Mendoza. On expected goals it finished 1.80–1.78.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.