5 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 Tigre.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gimnasia La Plata, 30% draw, 30% Tigre — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia La Plata97%Draw3%Tigre0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Nacho Fernández (pen)
15'
45'
Bruno Leyes
⚽German Contiassist: N. Fernandez
45'
46'
🔁B. Leyesout: M. Garay
46'
🔁S. Lopezout: M. Mendez
Mateo Seoane
49'
50'
⚽I. Russo
🔁M. Zalazarout: F. Torres
61'
🔁P. Silva Torrejonout: M. Melluso
62'
64'
Felipe Zenobio
65'
Mauro Méndez
66'
Ignacio Russo
⚽A. Auzmendi (pen)
67'
🔁M. Seoaneout: A. Colazo
68'
Enzo Martínez
69'
🔁L. Jansonout: A. Steimbach
77'
🔁A. Auzmendiout: M. Torres
77'
78'
🔁S. Gonzalezout: I. Subiabre
78'
🔁V. Morenoout: I. Peluffo
Ignacio Miramón
90+4'

Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre

48%Possession52%
14Shots12
6On target3
5Corners1
2.77xG1.22

Goals against chances

Gimnasia La Plata2 from 2.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Tigre1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia La Plata 4-1-4-1
  • 23N. InsfranG
  • 31B. Barros SchelottoD
  • 13German ContiD
  • 21E. MartinezD
  • 24P. Silva TorrejonD
  • 5I. MiramonM
  • 9M. ZalazarM
  • 8N. FernandezM
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 17L. JansonM
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
Substitutes
  • 27J. KadijevicG
  • 22M. MellusoD
  • 4R. GiampaoliD
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 20J. PerezM
  • 25A. SteimbachM
  • 33P. AguiarM
  • 32M. TorresF
Coach: Mariano Messera
Tigre 4-2-3-1
  • 12F. T. ZenobioG
  • 4V. MorenoD
  • 20A. BarrionuevoD
  • 32J. VillalbaD
  • 3N. BanegasD
  • 27S. GonzalezM
  • 5B. LeyesM
  • 11T. SerragoM
  • 10J. SaraleguiM
  • 22S. LopezM
  • 29I. RussoF
Substitutes
  • 26L. MoralesG
  • 17G. SotoD
  • 8M. GarayM
  • 23G. RequenaD
  • 24F. AlvarezD
  • 40L. MinnitiD
  • 21S. MedinaM
  • 47A. LezcanoM
  • 33M. MendezF
Coach: Diego Dabove

Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre

Gimnasia La Plata

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Rosario Central29 August 2026
  • L2-3Gimnasia Mendoza22 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Estudiantes La Plata15 August 2026
  • W2-0Barracas Central9 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Aldosivi2 August 2026

Tigre

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Barracas Central1 September 2026
  • W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Aldosivi15 August 2026
  • W1-0River Plate8 August 2026
  • D0-0Belgrano Cordoba6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Gimnasia La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gimnasia La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Gimnasia La Plata had three goals or more.
  • Tigre went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Tigre kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Tigre had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Gimnasia La Plata147432118+325
12Tigre143471316-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Tigre

Gimnasia La Plata

GoalsAssists

  • M. Torres92
  • A. Auzmendi73

Tigre

GoalsAssists

  • I. Russo83
  • M. Méndez73
  • D. Romero72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gimnasia La Plata beat Tigre 2–1. The model had made a win for Gimnasia La Plata its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: German Conti 45' for Gimnasia La Plata, I. Russo 50' for Tigre, A. Auzmendi (penalty) 67' for Gimnasia La Plata. On expected goals it finished 2.77–1.22.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.