Gais
vs
BK Hacken
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 46% Gais, 29% draw, 25% BK Hacken — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gais 1.35, BK Hacken 0.93.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gais
- L0-1Malmo FF16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Halmstad9 August 2026
- D1-1Halmstad26 July 2026
- L0-2away to AIK Stockholm18 July 2026
- W1-0IF Elfsborg12 July 2026
BK Hacken
- W3-0away to Sirius21 August 2026
- W1-0Halmstad17 August 2026
- L0-3away to Hammarby FF9 August 2026
- D1-1Kalmar FF1 August 2026
- D0-0AIK Stockholm27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gais | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | BK Hacken | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Gais vs BK Hacken
- 19 April 2026BK Hacken 2–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 31 August 2025Gais 2–1 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 29 June 2025BK Hacken 1–3 GaisAllsvenskan
- 3 November 2024BK Hacken 1–2 GaisAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2024Gais 3–0 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 23 February 2020BK Hacken 3–0 GaisSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers
Gais
No league goals recorded yet.
BK Hacken
- G. Lindgren7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gais carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.45 for BK Hacken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Gais W-L-D-W-L; BK Hacken D-D-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Gais and 0.93 for BK Hacken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gais rate 0.65 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BK Hacken rate 0.43 and 1.10.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour BK Hacken, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gais a 0% chance of the title and BK Hacken 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Gais against 0.93 for BK Hacken. Gais's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.1 for BK Hacken.