Regular Season - 20 · 5 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Degerfors IF vs Halmstad Allsvenskan prediction

Stora Valla, Degerfors

The model makes it 59% Degerfors IF, 25% draw, 16% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Degerfors IF 1.71, Halmstad 0.75.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

44%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 14%2-0 12%1-1 12%

Form going into this match

Degerfors IF

  • W3-0IFK Goteborg16 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Malmo FF9 August 2026
  • L0-2away to IFK Goteborg2 August 2026
  • L0-1Djurgardens IF25 July 2026
  • L0-4away to Hammarby FF19 July 2026

Halmstad

  • L0-1away to BK Hacken17 August 2026
  • L0-2Gais9 August 2026
  • L0-2Sirius3 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Gais26 July 2026
  • L0-2BK Hacken19 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Degerfors IF174491727-1016
16Halmstad1714121134-237

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Degerfors IF vs Halmstad

  • 12 April 2026Halmstad 0–3 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 20 October 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 30 March 2025Halmstad 0–5 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 7 October 2023Halmstad 0–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 8 April 2023Degerfors IF 3–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 16 October 2021Degerfors IF 2–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan

The two sides

Degerfors IF carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.11 for Halmstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Degerfors IF L-L-L-W-W; Halmstad L-D-L-L-L.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Degerfors IF and 0.75 for Halmstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Degerfors IF rate 0.51 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Halmstad rate 0.39 and 1.77.

That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Degerfors IF the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Degerfors IF against 0.75 for Halmstad. Degerfors IF's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.77 for Halmstad.