Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 36% Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto, 27% draw, 37% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1.38, San Lorenzo 1.41.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
No earlier matches on record this season.
San Lorenzo
- L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus26 July 2026
- L1-2Independiente2 May 2026
- W1-0away to Platense25 April 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
The two sides
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.54 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto L-W-L-D-L; San Lorenzo W-L-L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 1.41 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto rate 0.60 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.64 and 1.22.
That points to 53% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Lorenzo the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto against 1.41 for San Lorenzo. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.22 for San Lorenzo.