Independiente
vs
Independiente Rivadavia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 33% Independiente, 23% draw, 44% Independiente Rivadavia — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Independiente 1.57, Independiente Rivadavia 1.84.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Independiente
- L0-1Platense9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Rosario Central10 May 2026
Independiente Rivadavia
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Leading scorers
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Independiente Rivadavia
- F. Sartori7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Independiente carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.79 for Independiente Rivadavia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Independiente L-W-W-L-L; Independiente Rivadavia L-D-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Independiente and 1.84 for Independiente Rivadavia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente rate 0.74 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente Rivadavia rate 0.99 and 1.12.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Rivadavia the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Independiente against 1.84 for Independiente Rivadavia. Independiente's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.99/1.12 for Independiente Rivadavia.