Orgryte IS
vs
Halmstad
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 47% Orgryte IS, 29% draw, 24% Halmstad — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.38, Halmstad 0.90.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Orgryte IS
- L3-4AIK Stockholm8 August 2026
- W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
- D0-0Djurgardens IF20 July 2026
- W4-3BK Hacken11 July 2026
Halmstad
- L0-2Gais9 August 2026
- L0-2Sirius3 August 2026
- D1-1away to Gais26 July 2026
- L0-2BK Hacken19 July 2026
- L0-3away to Djurgardens IF13 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 13 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals
Halmstad
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.11 for Halmstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Orgryte IS W-D-L-W-L; Halmstad L-L-D-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Orgryte IS and 0.90 for Halmstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.44 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Halmstad rate 0.35 and 1.66.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orgryte IS the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 0.9 for Halmstad. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.66 for Halmstad.