GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% GIL Vicente, 28% draw, 24% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GIL Vicente at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
Line-ups
- 30LucãoG
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 45David MoreiraD
- 12A. LausenM
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
- 77MuriloM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 17Sergio BermejoF
- 26WeversonD
- 7T. TouréF
- 3EspigaresD
- 11Joelson FernandesF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 19GuilhermeM
- 99M. KabaF
- 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 8M. DominguezM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 27S. BambaF
- 66I. AyumaM
- 21I. AlaniM
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Form going into GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
GIL Vicente
Primeira Liga
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
- 5 March 2023GIL Vicente 2–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 11 September 2022Maritimo 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 20 March 2022GIL Vicente 1–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 31 October 2021Maritimo 1–2 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2021Maritimo 0–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and Maritimo
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
GIL Vicente and Maritimo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for GIL Vicente at 48% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Murilo Souza 7' for GIL Vicente, Israel Isaac Ayuma 90+3' for Maritimo.
How the call on GIL Vicente v Maritimo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is GIL Vicente's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- GIL Vicente win48%▲ +9
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Maritimo win24%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.