19 September 2026, 14:30 UTC

Nacional vs Famalicao Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Nacional 0-4 Famalicao.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Nacional, 29% draw, 33% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nacional at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional0%Draw1%Famalicao99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Georgios Koutsiasassist: Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
13'
⚽Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura
28'
Víctor Rofino Gordo
40'
⚽Georgios Koutsiasassist: Mathias De Amorim
🔁Jose Gomesout: Williams Kokolo
45'
🔁Song Min-kyuout: Stavros Gavriel
45'
🔁José Vitor Lima Cardosoout: Ivanildo Fernandes
45'
🔁Matchoi Djalóout: Pablo Ruan
61'
63'
Pedro Bondo Francisco
67'
⚽Marcos Vinicios Lopes Mouraassist: Mathias De Amorim
Williams Kokolo
71'
🔁Daniel de la Cruzout: Wesley
72'
73'
🔁Pedro Bondo Franciscoout: Leny Remo Meyer
73'
🔁Gil Diasout: Pedro Santos
Matheus dos Santos Dias
74'
75'
Finn van Breemen
Matheus dos Santos Dias
77'
80'
🔁Marcos Vinicios Lopes Mouraout: Óscar Aranda Subiela
80'
🔁Georgios Koutsiasout: Umar Abubakar
83'
🔁Rodrigo Pinheiroout: Gustavo Garcia

Match stats — Nacional vs Famalicao

55%Possession45%
12Shots12
3On target7
7Corners3

Line-ups

Nacional 4-1-4-1
  • 1Renato BellucciG
  • 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 38Zé VitorD
  • 5José GomesD
  • 6Matheus DiasM
  • 8Miguel BaezaM
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
  • 12Song Min-KyuM
  • 9A. ObandoF
Substitutes
  • 31D. DongmoM
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 11S. GavrielM
  • 7M. JensenM
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 21W. KokoloD
  • 23Mateus IseppeM
  • 50KevynG
  • 99Pablo RuanF
Coach: Alexandre Santos
Famalicao 4-2-3-1
  • 25L. CarevićG
  • 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
  • 15Víctor RofinoD
  • 4F. van BreemenD
  • 28Pedro FranciscoD
  • 8Marcos PeñaM
  • 21Tamás SzücsM
  • 23Gil DiasM
  • 14Mathias De AmorimM
  • 7SorrisoM
  • 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
  • 3L. RealpeD
  • 33P. SalasF
  • 10Pedro SantosF
  • 1I. ZlobinG
  • 5L. MeyerD
  • 19Paulo MoreiraM
  • 24Mathis JangealM
  • 2Gustavo GarciaD
  • 9U. AbubakarF
Coach: Carlos Carvalhal

Form going into Nacional vs Famalicao

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026

Famalicao

Primeira Liga

  • D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Nacional92161018-87
11Famalicao92431411+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional vs Famalicao

  • 21 March 2026Famalicao 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 1 November 2025Nacional 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 1 March 2025Nacional 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
  • 29 September 2024Famalicao 0–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 16 May 2021Famalicao 3–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

The full Nacional vs Famalicao record →

Leading scorers: Nacional and Famalicao

Nacional

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Famalicao

GoalsAssists

  • G. Koutsias50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Famalicao won 4–0 at Nacional. The model had leaned towards a win for Nacional at 38% and given a win for Famalicao 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Georgios Koutsias 7' for Famalicao, Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura 13' for Famalicao, Georgios Koutsias 40' for Famalicao, Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura 67' for Famalicao. Sent off: Matheus dos Santos Dias (Nacional) 77'.

How the call on Nacional v Famalicao has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Famalicao's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Nacional win38%=
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Famalicao win33%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.