Nacional
vs
Famalicao
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Nacional 2–1 Famalicao
The model makes it 38% Nacional, 29% draw, 33% Famalicao — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.53, Famalicao 1.35.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nacional vs Famalicao
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Nacional wins, grey are draws, red are Famalicao wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nacional vs Famalicao
Nacional
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitória SC23 August 2026
- W2-0Estoril16 August 2026
Famalicao
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Santa Clara23 August 2026
- L1-2Maritimo16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Famalicao
- 21 March 2026Famalicao 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 1 November 2025Nacional 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 1 March 2025Nacional 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 29 September 2024Famalicao 0–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2021Famalicao 3–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 30 January 2021Nacional 2–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Nacional and Famalicao
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Famalicao
- G. Koutsias3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nacional carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.73 for Famalicao. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Nacional and 1.35 for Famalicao. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Famalicao rate 0.88 and 1.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Famalicao, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nacional against 1.35 for Famalicao. Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.11 for Famalicao.