Sporting CP vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sporting CP 2-2 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Sporting CP, 30% draw, 24% Arouca — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting CP vs Arouca
Line-ups
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 6Z. DebastD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 19N. IrankundaM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 28J. DerryF
- 4S. AndersenM
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 30KaiqueG
- 31Luis GuilhermeF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 1J. VinarčíkG
- 20G. RukavinaF
- 5B. PopovićD
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 77S. ParkF
- 23D. NandínF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 9F. MayuluF
Form going into Sporting CP vs Arouca
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Arouca
- 24 January 2026Arouca 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Sporting CP 6–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Arouca
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez81
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP and Arouca drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting CP at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gonçalo Inácio 3' for Sporting CP, Luis Suárez 17' for Sporting CP, Jose Fontán (penalty) 81' for Arouca, Dylan Nandín 87' for Arouca. Sent off: Zeno Debast (Sporting CP) 54'.
How the call on Sporting CP v Arouca has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sporting CP win46%▲ +2
- Draw30%=
- Arouca win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.