Sporting CP
vs
Arouca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Sporting CP 1–0 Arouca
The model makes it 46% Sporting CP, 30% draw, 24% Arouca — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Sporting CP 1.54, Arouca 0.80.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting CP vs Arouca
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sporting CP wins, grey are draws, red are Arouca wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting CP vs Arouca
Sporting CP
- D1-1away to Famalicao13 September 2026
- W2-0Nacional5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rio Ave28 August 2026
- W3-1Alverca22 August 2026
- W3-2Vitória SC14 August 2026
Arouca
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
- L0-2away to FC Porto23 August 2026
- W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting CP | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting CP vs Arouca
- 24 January 2026Arouca 1–2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Sporting CP 6–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Sporting CP 2–2 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 13 September 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 10 March 2024Arouca 0–3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 8 October 2023Sporting CP 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Sporting CP and Arouca
Sporting CP
- L. Suárez5 goals1 assists
- Flávio Gonçalves3 goals1 assists
- F. Ioannidis2 goals2 assists
Arouca
- Barbero4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sporting CP carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.74 for Arouca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Sporting CP and 0.80 for Arouca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting CP rate 0.94 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arouca rate 0.81 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting CP a 28.6% chance of the title and Arouca 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sporting CP against 0.8 for Arouca. Sporting CP's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.01 for Arouca.