Brentford vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Brentford, 24% draw, 25% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brentford at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brentford vs Chelsea
Line-ups
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 20K. AjerD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 31E. BalcombeG
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 25E. DioufD
- 48B. FredrickD
- 3R. HenryD
- 2A. HickeyD
- 11D. OuattaraF
- 18M. SangaréM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 1E. MartínezG
- 3W. FofanaD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 4V. BarcoM
- 29Pep ChavarríaM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 39M. PendersG
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 21J. HatoD
- 27M. GustoD
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
Form going into Brentford vs Chelsea
Brentford
Premier League
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
Chelsea
Premier League
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 11 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Chelsea
- 17 January 2026Chelsea 2–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 13 September 2025Brentford 2–2 ChelseaPremier League
- 6 April 2025Brentford 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 15 December 2024Chelsea 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 2 March 2024Brentford 2–2 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Brentford and Chelsea
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers41
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brentford beat Chelsea 3–0. The model had made a win for Brentford its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jaidon Anthony 61' for Brentford, Igor Thiago 83' for Brentford, Fabio Carvalho 90+4' for Brentford.
How the call on Brentford v Chelsea has moved
First published on 4 Sep at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Brentford's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Brentford win51%▲ +5
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Chelsea win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.