Puskas Academy
vs
Budapest Honved
NB I prediction
Our model says: Puskas Academy 1–0 Budapest Honved
The model makes it 36% Puskas Academy, 30% draw, 34% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puskas Academy 1.30, Budapest Honved 1.21.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Puskas Academy vs Budapest Honved
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Puskas Academy wins, grey are draws, red are Budapest Honved wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puskas Academy at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puskas Academy vs Budapest Honved
Puskas Academy
- L0-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE6 September 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Vasas22 August 2026
- W3-2Paks16 August 2026
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
Budapest Honved
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
- D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puskas Academy vs Budapest Honved
- 27 May 2023Puskas Academy 2–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 5 March 2023Budapest Honved 3–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 15 October 2022Puskas Academy 1–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 15 May 2022Puskas Academy 1–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 26 February 2022Budapest Honved 0–0 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 31 October 2021Puskas Academy 3–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
Leading scorers: Puskas Academy and Budapest Honved
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals1 assists
- G. Harutyunyan2 goals
- L. Colley2 goals
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puskas Academy carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.44 for Budapest Honved. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Puskas Academy and 1.21 for Budapest Honved. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puskas Academy rate 0.56 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Budapest Honved rate 0.63 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puskas Academy a 4.9% chance of the title and Budapest Honved 2.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for Puskas Academy against 1.21 for Budapest Honved. Puskas Academy's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.43 for Budapest Honved.