Gaziantep FK
vs
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gaziantep FK 1–0 Erzurumspor FK
The model makes it 44% Gaziantep FK, 31% draw, 25% Erzurumspor FK — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.31, Erzurumspor FK 0.85.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Gaziantep FK are 12th on 8 points from 7 games; Erzurumspor FK are 14th on 8 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Gaziantep FK are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Çorum FK.
- Erzurumspor FK have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Alanyaspor.
- Last 5 meetings: Erzurumspor FK 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2021, ended Gaziantep FK 2–3 Erzurumspor FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gaziantep FK at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Gaziantep FK
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
Erzurumspor FK
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş11 September 2026
- W1-0Konyaspor5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 August 2026
What these results say
- Gaziantep FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Erzurumspor FK had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gaziantep FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Erzurumspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 43% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
- 25 April 2021Gaziantep FK 2–3 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 2 January 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 19 May 2018Gaziantep FK 0–0 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
- 7 April 2018Erzurumspor FK 2–1 Gaziantep FK1. Lig
- 26 November 2017Gaziantep FK 2–2 Erzurumspor FK1. Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gaziantep FK carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.44 for Erzurumspor FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.85 for Erzurumspor FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gaziantep FK rate 0.67 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Erzurumspor FK rate 0.48 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gaziantep FK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 0.85 for Erzurumspor FK. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.18 for Erzurumspor FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gaziantep FK at home · Erzurumspor FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Gaziantep FKErzurumspor FK
Gaziantep FK are 12th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 12th so far); Erzurumspor FK are 12th after 7 (between 12th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gaziantep FK 7, Erzurumspor FK 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gaziantep FK
- at Trabzonspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 13%
- vs Kasımpaşa6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Amed28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
Erzurumspor FK
- vs Çorum FK31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 24%
- at Rizespor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 23%
- vs Göztepe22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Fenerbahçe29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 8%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.