Çorum FK
vs
Rizespor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Çorum FK 2–1 Rizespor
The model makes it 45% Çorum FK, 26% draw, 29% Rizespor — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Çorum FK 2.17, Rizespor 1.49.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Çorum FK are 11th on 7 points from 6 games; Rizespor are 9th on 10 points from 6 games — Süper Lig.
- Çorum FK have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Alanyaspor.
- Rizespor have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Göztepe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Çorum FK vs Rizespor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Çorum FK at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Çorum FK vs Rizespor
Çorum FK
- L1-2Alanyaspor19 September 2026
- W5-1away to Samsunspor12 September 2026
- W3-0Eyüpspor6 September 2026
- L2-6away to Beşiktaş31 August 2026
- L0-1Kasımpaşa22 August 2026
Rizespor
- D2-2away to Göztepe20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Eyüpspor12 September 2026
- L0-1Alanyaspor7 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gaziantep FK29 August 2026
- L0-2Samsunspor22 August 2026
What these results say
- Çorum FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Çorum FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Çorum FK had three goals or more.
- Rizespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Çorum FK | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Rizespor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Rizespor
Çorum FK
- C. Ramírez4 goals1 assist
- A. Kyziridis3 goals2 assists
- Ermin Mahmić2 goals1 assist
Rizespor
- E. Bulut2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Çorum FK carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.63 for Rizespor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Çorum FK and 1.49 for Rizespor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Çorum FK rate 1.06 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rizespor rate 0.79 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rizespor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Çorum FK a 0.5% chance of the title and Rizespor 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Çorum FK the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Çorum FK against 1.49 for Rizespor. Çorum FK's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.23 for Rizespor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Çorum FK at home · Rizespor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Çorum FK 6, Rizespor 6.
Çorum FK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Rizespor have let in 1 there.
Rizespor score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Çorum FK have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Çorum FK
- at Göztepe25 Oct · Süper Ligwin 36%
- at Erzurumspor FK31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 43%
- vs Fenerbahçe8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Başakşehir23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
Rizespor
- vs Trabzonspor26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 31%
- at Kocaelispor31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Erzurumspor FK8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 48%
- at Amed21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.